NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	87		Excitement	5.7 [682]		MVP	Rudy Fernandez (POR): +15.0%
Los Angeles Clippers	72		Comeback	1.5 [817]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): -15.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.08	0.02	8	68%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.04	0.02	6	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	10	45%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.02	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	17	52%	0.11	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Brandon Roy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	58%	0.02	3	-0.07	10	50%	-0.04
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Travis Outlaw	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	14	21%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.01	14	60%	0.13	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	18	35%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Alex Acker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	12	50%	-0.02	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.5	26.6	15.8	26.9	2.7	27.3	127.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +40.9%

POR +1.2%

POR +13.5%

LAC -6.2%

POR +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	LAC	NBA	POR	LAC	NBA
this game	16.9	16.4	15.5	101.2	82.8	106.4
season	16.7	15.7		111.0	100.7
opponent	15.1	16.0		109.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.6	14.3	18.6	17.5	16.9
LAC	13.7	17.0	15.7	19.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	64	66	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.12	25	-10	35	17.0	16.7	0.27	16.0	17.6	-1.65
Joel Przybilla	56	57	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.13	22	-7	29	16.6	17.5	-0.93	16.0	17.1	-1.07
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	77	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.15	19	-4	23	16.9	16.9	0.03	16.3	17.1	-0.83
Rudy Fernandez	49	50	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.05	22	-7	29	15.5	18.8	-3.30	17.5	14.8	2.76
Brandon Roy	72	73	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.03	19	-4	23	16.8	17.6	-0.77	16.2	17.1	-0.84
Nicolas Batum	23	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.12	-7	22	-29	18.7	16.3	2.41	14.6	17.0	-2.41
Greg Oden	30	30	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.07	-7	22	-29	17.5	16.6	0.93	17.1	16.0	1.07
Travis Outlaw	38	37	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.08	-8	23	-31	17.9	16.1	1.78	16.4	16.4	0.02
Sergio Rodriguez	22	21	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.06	-10	25	-35	16.7	17.0	-0.27	17.6	16.0	1.65

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Taylor	31	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-13	11	18.2	15.4	2.84	15.8	17.5	-1.68
Marcus Camby	34	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-16	17	14.9	17.3	-2.39	17.2	16.7	0.51
Alex Acker	18	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-11	7	16.7	16.3	0.45	15.1	17.5	-2.41
Fred Jones	63	63	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-15	15	16.2	16.9	-0.76	18.1	13.8	4.30
Zach Randolph	55	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-8	1	15.8	17.3	-1.54	17.4	16.2	1.26
Chris Kaman	36	37	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-6	-3	16.9	16.0	0.84	16.6	17.2	-0.54
Brian Skinner	49	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.01	-15	0	-15	17.7	14.7	2.94	16.4	17.6	-1.17
Eric Gordon	84	82	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.03	-18	3	-21	16.4	14.7	1.76	17.0	14.7	2.29
Baron Davis	65	64	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.04	-21	6	-27	15.5	18.9	-3.34	16.7	17.5	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.14,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.22,0.07,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 98, PHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.05,0.15,0.03,0	92.2%
DET 98, NOP 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.18,0.27,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.24,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.17,0.37,0.47,0.35,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.01,0.02,0	92.2%
MIA 123, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.04,0,0	91.9%