NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	113		Excitement	6.5 [500]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +27.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	105		Comeback	4.6 [274]		LVP	Joe Alexander (MIL): -4.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.28	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.27,0.28	0.08	0.21	0.02	16	58%	0.30	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.21	0.11	0.11	0.02	18	65%	0.30	3	-0.09	10	70%	-0.03
Josh Smith	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	8	70%	0.16	2	-0.05	14	71%	0.00
Al Horford	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.03	0.00	8	86%	0.19	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	3	58%	0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Gardner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.02	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.08	-0.03	1	67%	0.11	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.07
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	13	51%	0.06	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.04	0.02	17	58%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	12	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.14	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	56%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Joe Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	31.4	15.7	26.2	2.7	39.0	141.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +48.4%

ATL +2.5%

ATL +1.1%

MIL -2.2%

ATL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.4	15.5	121.5	114.1	106.4
season	15.8	15.0		106.7	104.9
opponent	15.6	16.1		105.6	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.7	13.8	15.7	17.9	15.8
MIL	16.3	15.0	17.8	12.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	77	77	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-5	18	15.6	16.4	-0.81	15.7	13.7	1.95
Mike Bibby	75	73	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-3	14	15.6	16.3	-0.71	15.6	14.6	0.93
Joe Johnson	74	74	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.23	9	-1	10	16.2	14.0	2.22	15.6	14.3	1.29
Josh Smith	75	74	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	-1	10	16.0	14.6	1.43	15.9	13.3	2.53
Maurice Evans	56	57	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	0	8	15.1	16.8	-1.78	15.9	14.5	1.47
Ronald Murray	58	56	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.28	-2	10	-12	16.3	14.8	1.54	14.4	16.8	-2.40
Thomas Gardner	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	9	-10	2.0	15.9	-13.91	5.0	15.5	-10.48
Mario West	15	15	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	9	-10	15.5	15.8	-0.27	15.3	15.4	-0.12
Zaza Pachulia	34	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.11	-6	14	-20	15.5	15.9	-0.46	13.5	16.4	-2.89

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	30	31	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.01	5	-13	18	14.8	15.6	-0.85	14.6	16.3	-1.73
Joe Alexander	27	25	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.10	7	-15	22	14.5	15.7	-1.20	13.7	16.5	-2.85
Charlie Villanueva	49	50	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-9	10	16.2	14.4	1.74	15.2	16.4	-1.22
Luke Ridnour	44	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.40	10	-18	28	14.6	16.1	-1.49	18.2	13.6	4.68
Charlie Bell	34	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	3	-14	16.1	14.9	1.23	14.2	16.8	-2.61
Keith Bogans	63	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-8	8	14.2	18.0	-3.79	16.0	15.3	0.68
Ramon Sessions	62	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.11	-10	2	-12	15.5	15.1	0.45	15.4	16.4	-0.98
Luc Mbah a Moute	30	30	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	0	-8	15.1	15.5	-0.40	18.4	14.5	3.94
Dan Gadzuric	46	47	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.06	-18	10	-28	17.0	13.8	3.17	15.1	16.4	-1.24
Richard Jefferson	75	77	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.20	-16	8	-24	15.5	14.8	0.67	16.0	14.5	1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.59,0.64,0.77,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.27,0.15,0.29,0.32,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 103, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.72,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.45,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.37,0.33,0.02,0	92.3%
TOR 108, CHH 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.65,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.48,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.33,0.22,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.05,0	92.0%
NOH 111, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.22,0.1,0.04,0.05,0,0	91.7%