NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	83		Excitement	3.0 [1179]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +7.5%
Houston Rockets	93		Comeback	1.2 [1279]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): -10.7%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.14	-0.00	0.12	9	67%	0.02	0	0.00	9	89%	-0.00
Hakim Warrick	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	6	60%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Mike Conley	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	14	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.02	20	48%	-0.00	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Darius Miles	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	-0.06	7	0%	-0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	13	34%	-0.09	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	0.00	0.04	13	71%	0.11	2	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	80%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	12	58%	0.05	3	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	10	65%	0.04	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	13	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	7	29%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	33.3	15.0	23.4	2.4	28.4	131.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +42.3%

HOU +6.2%

HOU +9.6%

MEM -7.9%

MEM -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	HOU	NBA	MEM	HOU	NBA
this game	16.6	14.5	15.5	90.2	100.0	106.4
season	16.1	16.3		101.7	105.9
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.7	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.5	17.0	17.5	15.5	16.6
HOU	14.0	12.5	16.0	15.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	55	57	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-10	10	17.3	15.6	1.65	14.7	14.2	0.47
Darius Miles	10	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-10	10	14.2	16.9	-2.70	15.3	14.5	0.88
Rudy Gay	58	57	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	-3	-4	16.7	16.5	0.22	13.9	15.6	-1.75
Darrell Arthur	47	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.34	7	-17	24	16.1	17.2	-1.11	15.4	13.7	1.71
Hakim Warrick	40	44	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-10	10	16.7	16.5	0.25	14.6	14.5	0.10
Quinton Ross	34	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-13	16	16.5	16.7	-0.13	15.4	14.0	1.34
Greg Buckner	43	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-5	0	16.3	16.9	-0.53	14.3	14.8	-0.53
O.J. Mayo	65	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.08	-15	5	-20	16.8	16.1	0.70	14.2	15.3	-1.07
Darko Milicic	36	34	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.21	-21	11	-32	16.4	16.7	-0.36	13.4	15.2	-1.82
Mike Conley	72	71	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.08	-12	2	-14	16.8	16.0	0.78	14.8	13.5	1.30

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	61	62	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.24	23	-13	36	14.9	13.8	1.15	16.6	16.7	-0.09
Yao Ming	63	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.23	22	-12	34	14.7	14.2	0.50	16.7	16.4	0.23
Kyle Lowry	56	54	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	1	8	13.9	15.4	-1.49	16.4	17.0	-0.62
Luis Scola	56	57	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	3	4	14.9	14.0	0.94	16.4	16.9	-0.45
Aaron Brooks	46	48	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	2	6	15.0	14.1	0.87	16.6	16.6	-0.01
Carl Landry	34	35	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.18	14	-4	18	13.4	15.2	-1.87	17.4	16.1	1.28
Von Wafer	40	38	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	8	-6	13.9	15.0	-1.03	16.2	16.9	-0.63
Shane Battier	54	53	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	10	-10	15.2	13.6	1.63	17.0	16.1	0.83
Charles Hayes	24	21	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.39	-10	20	-30	13.9	14.8	-0.89	16.6	16.6	-0.05
Brent Barry	22	21	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.40	-12	22	-34	13.4	14.9	-1.48	17.1	16.5	0.69
Brian Cook	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.38	-13	23	-36	17.3	14.2	3.10	13.9	16.9	-2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 90, MIN 122	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
MIL 93, DAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
DAL 103, NOH 127	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%