NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	2.7 [1217]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +14.9%
Orlando Magic	122		Comeback	1.0 [1229]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -6.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.13	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.29	0.00	0.17	30	67%	0.14	1	-0.01	15	93%	0.02
Yakhouba Diawara	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	58%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.01	15	45%	-0.00	1	-0.01	1	100%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	0.00	0.05	5	70%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	10	27%	-0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.02	0.05	14	74%	0.17	2	-0.02	15	67%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	91%	0.16	6	-0.10	4	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.14	0.00	0.08	10	82%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.03	11	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	9	55%	0.03	4	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	0.05	8	53%	-0.02	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	3.5	32.5	19.4	29.5	4.4	30.5	146.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +50.8%

MIA -2.0%

ORL +13.9%

MIA -13.4%

ORL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.2	15.5	102.1	125.8	106.4
season	16.0	15.3		105.9	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.4	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.4	14.0	14.0	17.0	15.5
ORL	13.9	13.7	12.7	17.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	26	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.07	2	-25	27	15.0	15.6	-0.65	15.0	13.9	1.10
Mark Blount	12	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-20	17	13.7	15.7	-2.06	13.3	14.3	-1.01
Jamaal Magloire	7	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-18	13	16.9	15.4	1.49	14.9	14.2	0.69
Chris Quinn	35	35	-0.12	-0.39	0.27	0.09	-7	-16	9	16.0	15.2	0.87	16.3	13.0	3.28
Yakhouba Diawara	37	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.07	-3	-20	17	14.8	15.9	-1.12	12.3	15.5	-3.21
Michael Beasley	48	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.19	-13	-10	-3	15.1	15.8	-0.73	15.5	12.9	2.58
Daequan Cook	41	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.12	-12	-11	-1	16.9	14.4	2.52	15.8	13.1	2.74
Jamario Moon	51	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.17	-15	-8	-7	15.7	15.2	0.45	15.2	13.2	2.00
Udonis Haslem	50	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-11	-1	15.9	15.0	0.96	13.2	15.3	-2.07
Jermaine O'Neal	51	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.11	-15	-8	-7	15.8	15.1	0.78	13.7	14.8	-1.09
Mario Chalmers	50	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.14	-16	-7	-9	14.9	16.1	-1.19	13.0	15.5	-2.48
Dwyane Wade	77	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.06	-16	-7	-9	15.0	17.2	-2.24	13.6	16.9	-3.40

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	77	76	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.18	22	1	21	13.3	17.7	-4.39	14.6	18.6	-4.01
Dwight Howard	71	70	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.32	26	-3	29	13.8	15.4	-1.65	16.4	13.1	3.27
Rashard Lewis	72	71	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.08	15	8	7	14.3	14.1	0.18	16.0	14.1	1.86
Rafer Alston	60	59	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	10	3	13.8	14.9	-1.05	16.0	14.7	1.30
Courtney Lee	64	64	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.07	12	11	1	14.2	14.3	-0.09	16.1	14.2	1.87
JJ Redick	50	51	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.04	10	13	-3	15.8	12.5	3.27	16.1	14.8	1.27
Anthony Johnson	34	35	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.05	8	15	-7	15.1	13.7	1.43	14.8	15.9	-1.10
Tony Battie	30	31	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	18	-13	13.2	14.7	-1.52	13.4	16.5	-3.11
Marcin Gortat	21	22	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	23	-23	17.0	13.4	3.61	14.0	15.9	-1.97
Tyronn Lue	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	21	-19	11.7	14.3	-2.63	13.7	15.5	-1.87
Jeremy Richardson	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	21	-19	11.7	14.3	-2.63	13.7	15.5	-1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
CHA 87, DET 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
SAC 88, PHX 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%