NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	113		Excitement	7.3 [377]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +28.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	2.9 [444]		LVP	Ramon Sessions (MIL): -11.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.18	0.13	0.03	14	82%	0.41	4	-0.12	10	100%	0.04
Ben Gordon	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.01	15	51%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	-0.00	9	42%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	4	42%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	9	69%	0.15	7	-0.18	8	100%	0.03
Luol Deng	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	17	54%	0.03	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.03	0.06	18	62%	0.19	4	-0.12	16	94%	0.05
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Joe Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	5	73%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	-0.04	12	38%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	9	42%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	14	52%	0.06	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.04
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	0.04	5	50%	-0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	13	40%	0.03	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.5	28.3	13.7	33.0	1.8	41.0	146.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +37.1%

CHI +13.4%

MIL -21.0%

CHI +20.3%

CHI +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	13.5	15.1	15.5	111.9	103.0	106.4
season	14.8	15.0		106.3	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.6	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.4	13.0	13.6	12.9	13.5
MIL	15.6	15.8	14.6	14.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	71	70	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-6	21	12.9	14.7	-1.82	15.2	14.8	0.41
Joakim Noah	67	67	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	2	5	14.2	12.0	2.15	15.0	15.2	-0.18
Aaron Gray	40	40	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	3	3	13.2	13.6	-0.38	15.2	15.0	0.27
Thabo Sefolosha	58	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	5	-1	12.7	14.5	-1.80	14.3	16.1	-1.79
Tyrus Thomas	55	57	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	5	-1	13.4	13.5	-0.08	14.6	15.6	-1.02
Luol Deng	69	69	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.10	4	5	-1	13.3	13.7	-0.34	15.5	14.0	1.50
Ben Gordon	68	69	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	7	-5	13.8	12.7	1.17	15.6	14.0	1.60
Derrick Rose	77	76	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.11	3	6	-3	13.8	12.3	1.47	14.9	15.4	-0.51

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	51	50	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.03	6	-15	21	14.6	15.5	-0.95	14.2	12.7	1.51
Joe Alexander	14	14	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-12	15	16.0	14.9	1.09	9.7	14.1	-4.34
Charlie Villanueva	69	66	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-8	7	14.8	15.5	-0.69	14.2	12.0	2.23
Malik Allen	7	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-9	9	13.9	15.1	-1.29	14.6	13.4	1.20
Ramon Sessions	76	76	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-8	7	15.1	14.9	0.24	14.2	11.3	2.89
Keith Bogans	34	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-4	-1	14.5	15.3	-0.80	12.0	14.2	-2.19
Luc Mbah a Moute	57	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-2	-5	14.1	16.3	-2.27	13.3	13.7	-0.38
Eddie Gill	25	25	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-1	-7	14.9	15.1	-0.24	11.3	14.2	-2.89
Dan Gadzuric	32	33	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	3	-15	17.0	14.1	2.89	13.3	13.5	-0.27
Charlie Bell	57	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	0	-9	16.0	13.9	2.12	12.7	14.4	-1.73
Richard Jefferson	83	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.19	-11	2	-13	15.0	15.4	-0.47	14.2	9.9	4.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.7,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.48,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 92, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.18,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0	93.5%
MIA 125, HOU 119	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.75,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.07,0.1,0.02,0,0.05,0	93.3%
LAL 106, VAN 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.1,0,0	93.2%