NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	111		Excitement	8.1 [222]		MVP	Sebastian Telfair (MIN): +37.8%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	2.9 [81]		LVP	Mike Miller (MIN): -22.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sebastian Telfair	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.03,0.22,0.38	0.15	0.27	0.04	14	79%	0.53	5	-0.16	10	100%	0.09
Ryan Gomes	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.01	14	67%	0.21	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Randy Foye	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.23,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.00	12	58%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.01	10	67%	0.17	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Craig Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	7	56%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Brian Cardinal	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	87%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Carney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	62%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jason Collins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Miller	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.09	-0.11	0.02	4	64%	0.01	6	-0.24	3	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.4,0.35	0.35	0.20	0.20	0.05	22	65%	0.39	1	-0.04	13	92%	0.04
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.34,0.34,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.11	0.00	6	86%	0.37	2	-0.20	2	100%	0.04
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	0	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.01	12	61%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Jamario Moon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	10	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	8	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.01	9	65%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.7	28.5	17.5	27.9	1.8	39.1	142.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +50.3%

MIN +8.5%

MIN +43.4%

MIA -48.4%

MIA -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	14.5	15.5	116.8	109.5	106.4
season	15.8	16.0		104.3	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.1		105.7	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.4	14.1	16.7	16.8	15.8
MIA	15.9	16.6	15.3	10.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Gomes	71	70	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.25	18	-11	29	15.6	16.3	-0.70	15.4	12.1	3.35
Sebastian Telfair	86	86	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-6	19	15.8	15.9	-0.13	14.8	12.3	2.45
Randy Foye	49	51	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	1	5	16.8	14.7	2.16	13.3	16.0	-2.62
Craig Smith	26	25	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	0	7	16.4	15.5	0.85	14.3	14.6	-0.31
Rodney Carney	62	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	8	-9	14.6	17.9	-3.28	14.4	14.7	-0.25
Kevin Love	58	60	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.34	-9	16	-25	16.1	15.3	0.77	15.0	13.8	1.18
Jason Collins	17	16	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	5	-3	14.5	16.1	-1.58	14.5	14.6	-0.06
Brian Cardinal	34	35	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.14	6	1	5	16.3	15.5	0.77	13.6	15.1	-1.55
Mike Miller	72	74	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.19	-7	14	-21	15.8	15.6	0.27	14.6	14.5	0.03

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	45	47	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.15	11	-18	29	14.5	14.6	-0.15	17.3	14.3	2.98
Joel Anthony	24	23	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.02	4	-11	15	13.9	14.8	-0.90	17.5	15.2	2.31
Michael Beasley	36	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-11	15	12.9	15.6	-2.67	15.7	15.8	-0.10
James Jones	30	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-7	7	17.2	13.3	3.83	16.2	15.6	0.58
Jamario Moon	10	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.17	-9	2	-11	15.3	14.5	0.84	12.2	16.3	-4.12
Jermaine O'Neal	51	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-6	5	15.6	13.3	2.33	15.9	15.7	0.20
Dwyane Wade	87	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	-5	3	14.2	18.0	-3.77	15.8	15.8	-0.01
Daequan Cook	65	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	0	-7	13.3	17.2	-3.83	15.6	16.2	-0.58
Chris Quinn	50	48	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.15	-18	11	-29	14.6	14.5	0.15	14.3	17.3	-2.98
Udonis Haslem	77	75	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.25	-17	10	-27	15.1	12.3	2.80	15.8	15.7	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.17,0.27,0.53,0.29,0.54,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.37,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 104, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.69,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.26,0	91.1%
NYK 89, VAN 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.15,0.29,0.31,0.16,0	91.0%
LAC 95, NOP 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.46,0.33,0.15,0	90.9%