NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	7.7 [283]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +43.3%
Chicago Bulls	93		Comeback	1.8 [338]		LVP	Thabo Sefolosha (CHI): -18.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19	0.01	0.17	-0.00	10	60%	0.39	2	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.08	-0.01	10	64%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.00	0.00	10	95%	0.26	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,0,0.09,0.07	-0.04	0.09	-0.02	23	46%	0.12	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.11	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	27%	-0.05	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.00	8	37%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.43	0.43	0.13	0.30	-0.00	21	59%	0.52	3	-0.09	16	87%	0.19
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	8	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.06	0.01	14	56%	0.05	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	8	65%	0.06	6	-0.18	7	71%	-0.03
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	5	36%	-0.04	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.15	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.7	29.2	20.4	27.5	3.6	43.2	152.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +95.5%

CHI -56.5%

CHI -5.4%

MIA +7.3%

MIA +9.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.3	13.8	15.5	100.0	96.9	106.4
season	16.0	14.8		105.9	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		107.2	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.4	16.1	14.8	18.2	16.3
CHI	14.3	13.9	14.6	12.5	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	72	72	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.45	5	-3	8	15.7	18.3	-2.60	13.3	15.5	-2.22
Mario Chalmers	68	68	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.47	4	-2	6	16.4	16.2	0.16	13.4	14.8	-1.34
Daequan Cook	58	59	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.37	7	-5	12	16.6	15.9	0.73	14.0	13.5	0.52
Dwyane Wade	78	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	16.2	17.2	-1.02	13.1	16.9	-3.76
Michael Beasley	58	60	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	-4	10	15.9	17.0	-1.09	15.0	11.8	3.20
Shawn Marion	78	79	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.31	-3	5	-8	16.5	15.6	0.84	13.3	16.3	-2.99
James Jones	17	18	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	1	0	17.2	16.2	1.02	16.9	13.1	3.76
Chris Quinn	27	28	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.02	-2	4	-6	16.2	16.4	-0.16	14.8	13.4	1.34
Joel Anthony	19	18	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.11	-9	11	-20	18.5	15.8	2.74	13.7	13.9	-0.14

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andres Nocioni	33	33	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.17	-3	1	-4	15.9	12.8	3.12	15.9	16.6	-0.70
Ben Gordon	84	84	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-9	16	13.5	16.2	-2.67	16.2	17.5	-1.37
Luol Deng	58	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-5	8	12.7	15.6	-2.85	16.6	16.0	0.53
Derrick Rose	78	77	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	5	-12	13.8	14.0	-0.21	16.2	17.1	-0.89
Tyrus Thomas	76	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-5	8	13.4	15.6	-2.29	16.6	15.4	1.12
Kirk Hinrich	52	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.37	-4	2	-6	14.8	12.7	2.04	16.2	16.5	-0.36
Thabo Sefolosha	13	13	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.28	-9	7	-16	15.0	13.7	1.35	15.2	16.5	-1.37
Joakim Noah	87	86	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.70	0	-2	2	13.7	15.1	-1.41	16.6	14.0	2.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.54,0.24,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 98, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.13,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.47,0.33,0.25,0.36,0.1,0.08,0	92.9%
HOU 98, OKC 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.32,0.26,0	90.9%
BOS 105, CLE 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.04,0	90.7%