NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	95		Excitement	4.1 [1000]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +19.7%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	1.2 [1153]		LVP	Al Thornton (LAC): -13.5%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	15	57%	0.07	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Steve Novak	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.04	7	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.06	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	6	86%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.00	0.04	5	77%	0.02	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jason Hart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	11	37%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Eric Gordon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Al Thornton	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.19	-0.01	-0.06	17	25%	-0.09	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.03	0.01	17	70%	0.24	2	-0.04	12	83%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.01	-0.03	12	62%	0.12	2	-0.02	5	60%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	11	57%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	5	90%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	2	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	0.03	8	56%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	68%	0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.0	31.4	15.8	26.4	2.5	27.3	130.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.7%

LAC -1.0%

MIA +10.7%

MIA +1.0%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MIA	NBA	LAC	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.0	15.5	99.0	125.3	106.4
season	15.7	16.0		100.7	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.1		105.7	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	14.5	15.8	16.6	14.0	15.2
MIA	16.2	13.0	14.7	16.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre Jordan	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-20	16	17.0	15.1	1.90	16.2	14.9	1.31
Marcus Camby	52	53	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-27	30	15.0	15.4	-0.35	15.4	14.4	1.03
Ricky Davis	51	50	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.11	-6	-18	12	14.0	16.6	-2.56	15.4	14.5	0.85
Baron Davis	49	50	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.22	-10	-14	4	15.7	14.6	1.10	14.6	15.3	-0.71
Jason Hart	2	2	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-20	16	1.0	15.5	-14.50	9.5	15.1	-5.58
Steve Novak	39	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.09	-9	-15	6	14.8	15.5	-0.72	14.2	15.4	-1.26
Brian Skinner	51	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.21	-17	-7	-10	14.2	16.3	-2.05	13.5	16.6	-3.16
Fred Jones	49	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.13	-16	-8	-8	15.5	14.9	0.60	15.5	14.4	1.05
Eric Gordon	60	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	-11	-2	15.6	14.6	1.03	15.4	14.2	1.27
Zach Randolph	49	49	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.01	-15	-9	-6	16.3	14.0	2.31	15.6	14.3	1.22
Al Thornton	73	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.31	-29	5	-34	15.7	13.7	2.03	14.9	15.0	-0.11

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	72	74	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.16	24	0	24	14.9	15.0	-0.11	15.5	14.2	1.26
Mario Chalmers	68	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.08	18	6	12	14.5	16.0	-1.46	16.3	12.3	3.99
Udonis Haslem	54	55	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.02	16	8	8	15.4	14.4	1.00	16.2	13.9	2.35
Shawn Marion	60	59	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	12	0	15.3	14.3	0.97	14.7	16.1	-1.39
Joel Anthony	63	64	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.19	13	11	2	14.7	15.4	-0.72	14.0	17.7	-3.73
Jamaal Magloire	24	24	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	17	-10	15.5	14.8	0.78	16.9	14.6	2.24
James Jones	49	49	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.17	12	12	0	14.5	15.4	-0.92	14.9	15.5	-0.65
Michael Beasley	45	45	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.16	9	15	-6	14.7	15.2	-0.55	15.0	15.4	-0.33
Chris Quinn	27	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.13	6	18	-12	16.0	14.5	1.46	12.3	16.3	-3.99
Yakhouba Diawara	13	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.12	3	21	-18	14.5	15.0	-0.58	16.5	15.0	1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.56,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 83, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
MIN 98, SAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
IND 76, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%