NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	87		Excitement	1.8 [1295]		MVP	Randy Foye (MIN): +18.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	129		Comeback	1.0 [1126]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -7.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.04	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	10	57%	0.00	2	-0.00	8	75%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	10	35%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.13	0.00	0.13	8	81%	0.00	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.00
Robert Swift	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.03	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	10	35%	-0.00	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	13	31%	-0.05	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Foye	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.29	0.00	0.10	16	84%	0.19	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.01
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.08	12	42%	0.03	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	14	57%	0.04	1	-0.01	9	56%	-0.01
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	0.00	0.08	9	78%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	0.00	0.07	5	80%	0.02	2	-0.01	10	80%	0.01
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	13	48%	0.01	1	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.01	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	5	17%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.7	29.5	15.0	22.2	2.0	26.2	122.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +36.1%

MIN +5.3%

MIN +4.5%

MIN +4.7%

OKC -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIN	NBA	OKC	MIN	NBA
this game	13.8	14.6	15.5	85.3	127.7	106.4
season	14.9	15.8		100.5	104.3
opponent	15.1	15.1		109.2	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.2	15.1	12.9	12.0	13.8
MIN	14.2	13.7	16.6	14.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Weaver	40	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.11	-4	-38	34	11.2	15.4	-4.12	15.0	14.3	0.71
Nick Collison	61	63	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.36	-15	-27	12	12.0	16.3	-4.28	14.9	14.2	0.62
Joe Smith	17	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-39	36	15.8	13.4	2.41	13.2	14.9	-1.63
Robert Swift	28	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.14	-9	-33	24	15.5	13.1	2.41	15.2	14.4	0.82
Nenad Krstic	36	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	-34	26	12.1	14.7	-2.63	14.1	14.9	-0.73
Chris Wilcox	27	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.33	-18	-24	6	12.8	14.1	-1.28	14.3	14.7	-0.40
Damien Wilkins	50	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.45	-23	-19	-4	12.5	15.0	-2.46	13.3	15.8	-2.54
Kevin Durant	41	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.51	-27	-15	-12	16.2	12.1	4.04	15.3	14.2	1.10
Earl Watson	53	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.41	-24	-18	-6	13.6	14.0	-0.39	13.2	16.1	-2.87
Jeff Green	35	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.61	-31	-11	-20	16.9	12.1	4.72	15.0	14.4	0.63
Desmond Mason	64	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.34	-23	-19	-4	14.1	13.2	0.87	15.2	13.8	1.39
Russell Westbrook	58	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.38	-25	-17	-8	14.7	12.5	2.13	15.6	13.3	2.38

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sebastian Telfair	69	67	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.55	32	10	22	15.7	12.4	3.25	14.8	11.8	2.98
Randy Foye	60	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.44	28	14	14	14.6	14.6	-0.02	14.8	12.3	2.49
Ryan Gomes	53	52	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.46	28	14	14	15.8	13.3	2.50	15.0	12.5	2.50
Al Jefferson	58	58	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.26	20	22	-2	15.3	13.7	1.69	15.0	12.2	2.81
Craig Smith	49	47	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.38	22	20	2	15.7	13.6	2.12	15.3	12.5	2.82
Mike Miller	49	52	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.29	18	24	-6	13.9	15.3	-1.45	12.4	15.2	-2.83
Rodney Carney	59	62	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.38	21	21	0	13.8	15.8	-2.03	12.2	16.1	-3.86
Kevin Love	52	54	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.32	18	24	-6	13.6	15.7	-2.12	12.3	15.4	-3.06
Brian Cardinal	22	23	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.28	13	29	-16	14.0	14.8	-0.80	12.8	14.0	-1.20
Mark Madsen	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	37	-32	12.4	15.1	-2.66	11.7	14.2	-2.46
Rashad McCants	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	37	-32	12.4	15.1	-2.66	11.7	14.2	-2.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 63, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.5%
SAC 81, PHX 129	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.4%
TOR 77, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.3%