NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	75		Excitement	3.5 [1110]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +20.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	103		Comeback	1.1 [917]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (CHA): -12.8%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	12	62%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Singletary	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adam Morrison	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	11	42%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	11	42%	0.02	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Emeka Okafor	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	-0.01	0.08	10	52%	-0.07	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Shannon Brown	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.02	-0.06	6	17%	-0.05	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.01	-0.05	11	31%	-0.08	5	-0.04	4	75%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.20	0.01	-0.00	16	74%	0.21	1	-0.00	10	80%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.15	0.01	0.04	16	67%	0.11	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	17	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	30%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	0	75%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	7	47%	0.05	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.0	27.7	15.8	27.2	1.8	27.1	126.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +37.9%

MIL +3.1%

CHA -9.1%

MIL +17.1%

MIL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIL	NBA	CHA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.1	15.5	79.8	110.8	106.4
season	16.5	15.0		103.0	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.6		105.6	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	16.3	18.0	15.1	17.7	16.7
MIL	12.0	14.7	14.9	15.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adam Morrison	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-25	22	15.0	16.9	-1.85	17.2	13.8	3.33
Alexis Ajinca	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.25	-9	-19	10	17.7	16.4	1.30	15.0	13.8	1.24
Juwan Howard	19	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-23	18	17.1	16.7	0.40	16.2	13.5	2.69
Sean Singletary	16	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.17	-9	-19	10	16.7	16.7	-0.06	14.1	14.0	0.08
Matt Carroll	19	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-24	20	15.7	17.0	-1.32	11.6	14.7	-3.11
D.J. Augustin	59	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.16	-11	-17	6	16.7	16.7	0.03	15.1	12.4	2.74
Nazr Mohammed	27	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.09	-10	-18	8	16.4	16.9	-0.51	14.7	13.7	0.97
Raymond Felton	66	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.08	-12	-16	4	16.8	16.5	0.38	13.5	15.4	-1.90
Emeka Okafor	67	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.23	-18	-10	-8	16.9	16.4	0.51	13.7	14.7	-0.97
Shannon Brown	28	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.23	-20	-8	-12	17.2	16.5	0.63	14.8	13.7	1.07
Boris Diaw	72	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	-12	-4	16.7	16.9	-0.17	13.4	16.8	-3.44
Gerald Wallace	69	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.17	-23	-5	-18	16.5	17.3	-0.80	13.7	15.0	-1.39

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	63	64	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.11	21	7	14	13.5	15.1	-1.59	16.3	17.7	-1.47
Richard Jefferson	68	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.14	19	9	10	13.6	15.4	-1.84	16.9	16.3	0.67
Luke Ridnour	56	55	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.00	14	14	0	13.1	15.4	-2.29	16.9	16.5	0.33
Luc Mbah a Moute	41	40	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.09	16	12	4	12.9	15.0	-2.10	15.8	17.4	-1.63
Andrew Bogut	54	54	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.02	13	15	-2	13.1	15.4	-2.25	17.0	16.3	0.71
Dan Gadzuric	30	30	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.22	12	16	-4	15.0	13.6	1.45	16.1	17.0	-0.93
Charlie Villanueva	52	54	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.23	12	16	-4	15.0	12.9	2.10	17.4	15.8	1.63
Tyronn Lue	37	39	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.32	14	14	0	15.4	13.1	2.29	16.5	16.9	-0.33
Charlie Bell	45	46	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.25	11	17	-6	15.0	13.2	1.83	17.0	16.5	0.52
Joe Alexander	10	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	23	-18	16.4	13.8	2.63	17.2	16.7	0.51
Francisco Elson	9	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	25	-22	16.4	13.8	2.65	17.0	16.7	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 101, PHX 123	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
BKN 88, MIA 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
PHX 83, DAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%