NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	78		Excitement	5.0 [839]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +33.7%
Atlanta Hawks	85		Comeback	1.7 [819]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -15.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Stuckey	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	12	74%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	18	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	11	42%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	16	47%	-0.04	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.26	0.07	-0.01	13	96%	0.36	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.02
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	9	55%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	22	41%	0.06	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	13	32%	-0.09	2	-0.07	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	28.5	15.8	22.2	1.8	32.0	125.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +32.5%

ATL +2.7%

ATL +13.5%

DET -0.1%

ATL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	17.2	17.5	15.5	92.9	103.7	106.4
season	16.9	15.8		104.9	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		106.0	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.7	17.6	16.1	17.3	17.2
ATL	17.4	13.7	19.9	19.7	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Bynum	11	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-5	3	17.1	17.2	-0.11	18.7	17.3	1.40
Rasheed Wallace	72	69	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.40	9	-16	25	16.8	19.4	-2.60	18.3	13.5	4.81
Richard Hamilton	73	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.36	5	-12	17	17.3	16.7	0.53	17.8	15.5	2.27
Amir Johnson	14	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.04	-9	2	-11	17.7	17.1	0.63	16.6	17.7	-1.12
Arron Afflalo	8	9	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	4	-15	19.9	16.9	2.97	13.6	18.0	-4.44
Rodney Stuckey	65	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-3	-1	17.2	17.3	-0.16	17.1	18.8	-1.66
Tayshaun Prince	60	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.27	-2	-5	3	17.5	16.5	1.03	17.8	16.8	0.97
Allen Iverson	73	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	2	-11	17.1	17.9	-0.83	17.3	18.8	-1.51
Antonio McDyess	44	44	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	5	-17	16.9	17.5	-0.64	17.1	17.9	-0.81

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	60	61	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.17	15	-8	23	16.9	19.1	-2.22	18.4	13.9	4.51
Mike Bibby	66	66	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.22	13	-6	19	16.8	20.6	-3.79	18.0	14.2	3.78
Al Horford	71	74	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.34	-3	10	-13	18.2	13.3	4.90	16.9	19.4	-2.51
Zaza Pachulia	11	10	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.04	10	-3	13	13.3	18.2	-4.90	19.4	16.9	2.51
Josh Smith	73	76	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.39	-5	12	-17	18.0	13.6	4.44	16.9	19.9	-2.97
Joe Johnson	73	76	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.36	-4	11	-15	18.0	13.6	4.44	16.9	19.9	-2.97
Ronald Murray	25	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	2	3	18.0	17.3	0.76	16.0	17.7	-1.78
Maurice Evans	31	31	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	3	1	17.5	17.5	0.01	15.5	18.2	-2.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.71,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 84, PHI 100	0.5,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.85,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.5%
NOH 96, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.9,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.9,0.91,0.78,0.93,0.99,0.9,0.91,1	94.0%
BOS 99, CLE 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.9%