NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	103		Excitement	6.9 [440]		MVP	T.J. Ford (IND): +24.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	121		Comeback	1.6 [709]		LVP	Troy Murphy (IND): -13.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
T.J. Ford	0.24	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.13	0.00	14	69%	0.30	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.05
Brandon Rush	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.09	-0.02	9	73%	0.24	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Jeff Foster	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	61%	0.09	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.08
Roy Hibbert	0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Danny Granger	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	12	54%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	7	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	9	35%	-0.04	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.03
Troy Murphy	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.02	10	37%	-0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.11	-0.04	22	57%	0.25	4	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.04	0.12	-0.01	11	65%	0.25	4	-0.08	9	89%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.04	0.13	-0.00	17	50%	0.17	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.02	0.04	3	117%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.04	0.04	15	72%	0.13	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	3	33%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Alexander	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	7	65%	-0.00	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.0	29.3	15.4	32.0	2.5	32.6	137.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +26.6%

MIL +11.8%

IND -10.5%

MIL +19.4%

MIL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	13.3	15.5	102.0	117.5	106.4
season	14.1	15.0		106.5	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.3		105.6	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.4	14.4	14.4	15.6	14.9
MIL	13.4	11.9	13.8	14.4	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Rush	58	59	0.23	-0.73	0.97	0.06	6	-24	30	15.5	14.2	1.32	13.4	13.3	0.06
Josh McRoberts	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-15	12	13.0	14.9	-1.94	13.5	13.3	0.17
Roy Hibbert	38	39	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-18	18	15.1	14.8	0.30	12.9	13.6	-0.74
T.J. Ford	78	78	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.10	-3	-15	12	13.9	18.2	-4.27	13.5	12.9	0.54
Rasho Nesterovic	25	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	-5	-8	15.3	14.8	0.53	12.5	13.6	-1.16
Marquis Daniels	63	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.30	-21	3	-24	14.6	15.5	-0.93	13.0	13.9	-0.83
Jeff Foster	53	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.03	-13	-5	-8	15.9	13.8	2.15	13.8	12.8	1.07
Danny Granger	50	54	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.11	-10	-8	-2	15.2	14.7	0.51	14.3	12.3	1.99
Troy Murphy	74	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.11	-13	-5	-8	14.4	16.3	-1.88	13.0	14.0	-0.99
Jarrett Jack	65	65	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.07	-20	2	-22	15.2	14.4	0.87	13.2	13.6	-0.39

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	79	77	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.10	23	-5	28	13.4	13.0	0.43	14.9	15.1	-0.21
Michael Redd	94	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.03	16	2	14	13.4	12.2	1.21	14.9	15.3	-0.45
Luke Ridnour	69	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	4	10	13.4	13.1	0.36	14.3	16.3	-2.08
Richard Jefferson	69	68	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	10	-2	13.5	12.9	0.62	14.6	15.6	-1.06
Andrew Bogut	89	87	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	6	6	13.6	11.9	1.62	14.4	18.1	-3.66
Austin Croshere	14	14	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	12	-6	11.9	13.6	-1.62	18.1	14.4	3.66
Charlie Bell	28	29	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.18	8	10	-2	13.0	13.4	-0.40	16.9	14.1	2.77
Ramon Sessions	37	35	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	14	-10	12.4	13.8	-1.40	16.1	14.3	1.83
Joe Alexander	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	15	-12	13.5	13.3	0.17	16.0	14.9	1.10
Luc Mbah a Moute	36	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.03	-1	19	-20	13.4	13.3	0.05	14.3	15.3	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.7,0.81,0.75,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.79,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 91, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.84,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.9,0.91,1	92.6%
CLE 100, UTA 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.69,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.78,0.89,0.92,1	91.9%
ORL 78, ATL 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.74,0.83,0.83,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.53,0.78,0.94,0.96,1	91.7%