NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	6.3 [573]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +38.4%
Denver Nuggets	116		Comeback	6.0 [710]		LVP	Rashad McCants (MIN): -9.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.10	-0.01	19	65%	0.26	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Craig Smith	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	9	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Kevin Love	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	58%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Randy Foye	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	24	52%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	-0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	8	68%	0.06	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Rodney Carney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	2	33%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	5	8%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rashad McCants	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	11	38%	-0.04	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.1,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.21	0.15	-0.02	29	64%	0.45	2	-0.07	12	75%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.04	0.03	15	62%	0.15	0	0.00	9	89%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.00	7	60%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	69%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.03	4	40%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.02	0.01	6	44%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	4	57%	0.00	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	30%	-0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	29.2	16.3	27.4	2.4	33.5	135.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.5%

MIN -2.9%

MIN -0.9%

DEN +12.1%

DEN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	13.7	15.5	108.2	118.4	106.4
season	15.8	14.4		104.3	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.1		105.2	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.4	16.6	16.7	15.7	15.8
DEN	15.6	12.2	13.3	13.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sebastian Telfair	26	25	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.15	10	-21	31	15.4	16.0	-0.56	13.5	13.8	-0.26
Kevin Ollie	30	31	-0.04	-0.47	0.43	-0.15	4	-15	19	15.7	15.9	-0.15	11.8	14.6	-2.74
Kevin Love	64	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-9	7	15.6	16.2	-0.57	13.2	14.8	-1.57
Rodney Carney	20	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-6	1	15.8	15.8	-0.04	13.0	13.9	-0.88
Ryan Gomes	69	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	-7	3	15.9	15.6	0.37	14.0	13.0	1.04
Al Jefferson	81	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-2	-7	15.6	16.8	-1.17	14.1	11.9	2.22
Craig Smith	49	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	0	-11	16.4	15.2	1.16	13.8	13.6	0.13
Randy Foye	86	89	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.11	-16	5	-21	15.8	16.3	-0.49	14.0	10.6	3.48
Rashad McCants	60	60	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.03	-22	11	-33	16.0	15.5	0.52	14.2	13.0	1.17

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	78	77	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.14	15	-4	19	13.8	13.4	0.39	16.3	14.1	2.19
Carmelo Anthony	78	78	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.09	14	-3	17	14.0	12.7	1.21	15.7	16.3	-0.60
Nene	78	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	-2	15	14.7	9.8	4.92	15.8	15.8	0.02
Dahntay Jones	38	39	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	-1	13	15.1	12.8	2.27	16.4	15.4	1.00
Renaldo Balkman	44	43	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	3	5	14.6	13.0	1.67	16.6	15.2	1.42
Chris Andersen	51	52	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.13	3	8	-5	12.5	15.1	-2.59	15.2	16.6	-1.39
Anthony Carter	52	50	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	11	-11	13.2	14.3	-1.11	15.4	16.3	-0.98
Linas Kleiza	33	33	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	15	-19	11.6	14.8	-3.18	15.4	16.1	-0.71
J.R. Smith	38	38	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	17	-23	12.7	14.3	-1.60	15.6	16.0	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.83,0.81,0.7,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 109, NOP 123	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.69,0.76,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.6%
CLE 96, MEM 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.73,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.86,0.62,0.9,0.98,1,1	93.2%
TOR 84, IND 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.8%