NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	6.9 [447]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +24.6%
Los Angeles Clippers	88		Comeback	5.5 [298]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -20.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.05	0.17	-0.02	12	62%	0.28	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	5	90%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	3	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Courtney Lee	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	75%	0.13	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	16	46%	0.02	3	-0.10	18	50%	-0.15
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.19,-0.2	-0.16	-0.08	-0.04	15	32%	-0.08	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	12	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	60%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	29	44%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mardy Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Thornton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	15	41%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	22	48%	0.05	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	5	33%	-0.04	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	30.5	16.5	25.5	2.5	33.4	135.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +44.8%

ORL +11.3%

LAC -7.0%

ORL +1.5%

LAC -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	LAC	NBA	ORL	LAC	NBA
this game	13.8	15.3	15.5	96.0	88.9	106.4
season	15.3	15.7		107.3	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.8		109.8	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	11.9	13.5	15.1	14.6	13.8
LAC	15.8	16.5	13.7	15.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	87	88	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.18	20	-13	33	13.8	13.7	0.10	15.9	10.7	5.18
Brian Cook	19	20	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.28	13	-6	19	14.1	13.7	0.43	16.1	15.1	1.02
Courtney Lee	53	53	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.55	-3	10	-13	14.5	13.0	1.50	15.0	15.7	-0.64
Rashard Lewis	73	75	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	2	3	14.1	12.9	1.18	14.9	16.7	-1.87
Hedo Turkoglu	76	73	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.08	12	-5	17	12.9	16.7	-3.83	15.4	15.1	0.35
Anthony Johnson	28	29	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.28	-1	8	-9	13.8	13.7	0.04	15.2	15.4	-0.18
Jameer Nelson	71	70	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.01	8	-1	9	13.7	13.8	-0.04	15.4	15.2	0.18
Keith Bogans	52	53	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.14	2	5	-3	13.2	14.3	-1.07	14.8	16.0	-1.16
Tony Battie	36	34	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	0.15	-21	28	-49	14.5	13.3	1.17	15.5	15.3	0.21

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre Jordan	6	6	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-8	9	21.5	14.9	6.56	14.3	13.7	0.61
Al Thornton	84	84	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.11	-5	-2	-3	15.6	13.7	1.96	13.3	16.1	-2.80
Brian Skinner	24	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-7	7	14.4	15.6	-1.21	14.1	13.6	0.43
Mike Taylor	28	29	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.16	-3	-4	1	16.0	15.1	0.98	13.1	14.0	-0.93
Eric Gordon	78	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-4	1	14.9	17.0	-2.18	14.1	12.6	1.45
Marcus Camby	75	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	2	-11	15.0	16.2	-1.21	13.5	14.6	-1.09
Zach Randolph	87	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.40	-1	-6	5	15.6	13.6	1.99	14.2	11.1	3.09
Baron Davis	83	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	4	-15	14.9	17.6	-2.66	13.8	13.5	0.28
Mardy Collins	30	30	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.42	-4	-3	-1	15.8	15.1	0.62	13.8	13.8	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.67,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.85,0.7,0.62,0.48,0.58,0.41,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.13,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 103, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.17,0.14,0.03,0.01,0,0	91.7%
SAC 93, LAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.54,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.08,0.07,0.02,0	91.6%
IND 96, HOU 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.58,0.41,0.29,0.07,0.19,0.21,0.1,0,0	91.1%