NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	89		Excitement	3.9 [1037]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +14.4%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	1.2 [1178]		LVP	Randy Foye (MIN): -15.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashad McCants	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.02	0.05	11	54%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.05	18	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Kevin Love	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.09	10	67%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	0.04	13	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.01	-0.05	10	30%	-0.02	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.03	0.02	15	38%	-0.07	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.03	0.02	14	66%	0.15	1	-0.00	7	100%	0.03
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.15	0.01	0.10	10	90%	0.08	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	16	69%	0.11	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.01	0.04	10	64%	0.12	5	-0.12	16	56%	-0.04
JJ Redick	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	28.2	15.8	30.5	1.8	28.5	130.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +56.4%

ORL +6.5%

MIN -13.2%

MIN -1.2%

ORL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.9	15.5	98.9	112.4	106.4
season	15.8	15.3		104.3	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.1		101.4	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	18.5	17.1	17.2	12.3	16.3
ORL	14.2	16.3	14.8	18.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calvin Booth	2	1	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-13	15	16.0	16.3	-0.27	8.0	16.0	-8.00
Brian Cardinal	16	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-11	11	12.2	17.1	-4.96	17.1	15.7	1.47
Sebastian Telfair	25	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.09	-6	-5	-1	17.4	15.8	1.62	15.2	16.2	-0.93
Kevin Love	50	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-15	19	15.0	17.8	-2.80	17.2	14.3	2.88
Mike Miller	37	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-7	3	18.0	15.1	2.90	14.4	16.9	-2.54
Al Jefferson	62	62	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.30	6	-17	23	16.4	16.1	0.28	16.6	14.2	2.42
Jason Collins	12	13	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	-4	-3	17.5	16.1	1.42	12.8	16.4	-3.59
Craig Smith	14	13	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.14	-12	1	-13	14.9	16.5	-1.67	16.1	15.9	0.20
Ryan Gomes	63	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-3	-5	16.9	14.8	2.07	15.9	16.0	-0.07
Kevin Ollie	41	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	2	-15	17.8	15.0	2.78	14.6	17.1	-2.44
Randy Foye	69	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.22	-8	-3	-5	16.3	16.1	0.22	16.1	15.2	0.92
Rashad McCants	59	60	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	-2	-7	15.1	18.5	-3.43	16.4	14.9	1.50

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	68	69	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.13	13	-2	15	15.4	17.5	-2.05	16.3	16.3	-0.02
Anthony Johnson	57	57	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	1	9	15.8	16.1	-0.29	16.2	16.3	-0.06
Courtney Lee	64	65	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	6	-1	16.3	15.0	1.27	15.6	17.9	-2.23
Dwight Howard	71	72	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.00	12	-1	13	15.8	16.2	-0.32	16.7	14.6	2.14
JJ Redick	54	55	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	1	9	15.6	16.5	-0.90	17.5	14.3	3.15
Tony Battie	43	43	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	6	-1	16.0	15.8	0.26	16.0	16.5	-0.42
Hedo Turkoglu	73	75	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	7	-3	16.1	15.1	1.03	16.3	16.1	0.16
Marcin Gortat	6	7	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	8	-5	16.7	15.9	0.81	13.1	16.5	-3.39
Adonal Foyle	9	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	18	-25	17.7	15.7	1.95	12.4	16.6	-4.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.54,0.62,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 93, OKC 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.8%
HOU 105, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1	95.7%
LAL 90, MIL 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%