NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	111		Excitement	4.2 [960]		MVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): +18.3%
Denver Nuggets	120		Comeback	1.0 [1294]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -13.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakim Warrick	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	-0.00	14	63%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andre Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	0.00	0.08	14	61%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	19	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jason Collins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	6	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	21	48%	0.00	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Conley	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.00	0.06	11	55%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	15	36%	-0.04	5	-0.10	3	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.17	0.02	0.01	11	75%	0.18	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.03	9	65%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	8	63%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	71%	0.10	4	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	6	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	55%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Bobby Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.13	-0.01	-0.08	17	31%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.3	28.5	16.3	26.4	1.8	27.0	130.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +36.0%

DEN +9.3%

DEN +4.4%

MEM -1.2%

DEN +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	11.6	15.4	99.1	106.2	105.7
season	14.9	13.3		103.3	108.2
opponent	15.2	14.9		105.4	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.3	13.2	12.5	15.5	14.1
DEN	11.0	11.2	12.3	11.7	11.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Conley	51	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.24	6	-15	21	13.6	14.4	-0.85	12.6	10.6	2.02
Jason Collins	33	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-3	-3	14.8	13.8	1.00	11.9	11.4	0.51
Brian Cardinal	48	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-14	19	14.2	13.9	0.31	11.8	11.4	0.48
Casey Jacobsen	50	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-13	17	13.9	14.2	-0.24	11.2	11.9	-0.68
Rudy Gay	64	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.00	-12	3	-15	13.9	14.2	-0.31	11.4	11.8	-0.48
Andre Brown	79	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-6	3	13.8	14.8	-1.00	11.4	11.9	-0.51
Hakim Warrick	62	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.08	-15	6	-21	14.2	13.9	0.24	11.9	11.2	0.68
Juan Carlos Navarro	82	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-4	-1	14.1	13.9	0.26	11.4	12.1	-0.74
Kyle Lowry	91	90	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.04	-19	10	-29	14.3	13.2	1.06	11.1	13.3	-2.19

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	83	82	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	3	3	11.6	11.5	0.08	13.8	14.8	-1.02
Kenyon Martin	58	59	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.14	18	-9	27	11.2	11.9	-0.72	13.3	14.8	-1.51
Linas Kleiza	72	70	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	5	-1	11.5	11.6	-0.12	13.9	14.3	-0.37
Carmelo Anthony	48	49	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	0	9	11.9	11.3	0.59	14.4	13.8	0.59
Marcus Camby	53	53	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.11	4	5	-1	12.4	10.8	1.65	14.1	14.1	0.01
Allen Iverson	46	46	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	1	7	11.5	11.6	-0.13	14.3	13.9	0.35
J.R. Smith	39	39	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	3	3	9.7	12.5	-2.85	14.2	14.0	0.19
Yakhouba Diawara	39	39	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.28	-4	13	-17	11.7	11.5	0.28	14.9	13.6	1.29
Anthony Carter	31	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	3	3	12.4	11.2	1.14	13.9	14.1	-0.26
Eduardo Najera	54	53	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.09	2	7	-5	10.6	12.4	-1.78	13.9	14.2	-0.35
Steven Hunter	21	20	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.23	-7	16	-23	12.8	11.3	1.54	14.7	13.9	0.79
Bobby Jones	21	20	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.23	-7	16	-23	12.8	11.3	1.54	14.7	13.9	0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.76,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, MIL 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MIL 83, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
GSW 85, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%