NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	91		Excitement	4.2 [949]		MVP	James Jones (POR): +20.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	113		Comeback	1.9 [1074]		LVP	Juan Carlos Navarro (MEM): -14.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Brown	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	0.01	0.05	6	76%	0.08	0	0.00	9	44%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Jason Collins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	3	87%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.05	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Rudy Gay	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	16	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Casey Jacobsen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	17	42%	-0.04	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Brian Cardinal	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	9	28%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.03	-0.04	11	32%	-0.01	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.22	0.03	0.05	8	111%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.02	-0.04	12	62%	0.13	2	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.00	0.03	10	73%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	65%	0.03	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.01	12	50%	0.05	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
Von Wafer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.03	13	38%	-0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.3	30.4	15.6	29.3	2.6	28.0	132.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +35.7%

POR +7.6%

MEM -10.9%

POR +14.8%

POR +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	POR	NBA	MEM	POR	NBA
this game	15.3	16.7	15.4	101.1	125.6	105.7
season	14.9	16.7		103.3	105.5
opponent	15.4	14.9		106.1	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.6	16.7	15.5	13.5	15.3
POR	17.1	18.5	15.8	15.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Cardinal	43	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	-16	10	14.8	15.7	-0.85	17.7	15.8	1.83
Andre Brown	36	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-17	12	14.3	15.9	-1.54	17.2	16.4	0.76
Rudy Gay	63	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.22	-15	-7	-8	16.3	12.7	3.59	17.2	15.8	1.39
Casey Jacobsen	28	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-18	14	12.0	16.7	-4.78	16.8	16.7	0.08
Mike Conley	67	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.32	-21	-1	-20	16.1	12.7	3.44	15.7	19.7	-4.10
Jason Collins	41	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	-11	0	15.9	14.7	1.14	16.2	17.2	-0.94
Juan Carlos Navarro	58	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	-9	-4	14.8	16.1	-1.25	16.1	17.8	-1.70
Kyle Lowry	42	42	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.07	-15	-7	-8	15.2	15.3	-0.08	18.1	15.5	2.58
Hakim Warrick	72	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.08	-20	-2	-18	15.5	14.2	1.36	16.5	17.6	-1.06

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	72	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.13	23	-1	24	16.6	17.2	-0.53	15.7	13.3	2.42
Channing Frye	51	53	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.30	24	-2	26	16.5	17.1	-0.59	17.5	12.1	5.34
Brandon Roy	71	72	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.12	17	5	12	16.5	17.8	-1.39	14.8	17.1	-2.32
LaMarcus Aldridge	50	52	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.18	19	3	16	15.8	17.9	-2.12	16.8	13.2	3.59
Steve Blake	53	55	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.01	12	10	2	16.7	16.8	-0.07	16.5	13.3	3.22
Raef LaFrentz	27	25	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.07	3	19	-16	17.1	16.6	0.52	11.7	16.6	-4.95
Sergio Rodriguez	18	17	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	17	-12	17.0	16.7	0.32	15.3	15.2	0.05
James Jones	46	45	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.11	7	15	-8	18.7	14.7	3.95	14.4	16.1	-1.67
Travis Outlaw	48	46	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	23	-24	17.7	15.6	2.15	13.7	16.9	-3.24
Von Wafer	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	21	-20	10.4	17.1	-6.72	11.2	15.4	-4.19
Josh McRoberts	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	22	-22	13.4	17.1	-3.67	9.1	15.9	-6.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 92, MEM 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MIN 82, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
POR 93, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,0.98,0.98,0.97,1	95.5%