NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	84		Excitement	5.9 [606]		MVP	Jason Maxiell (DET): +21.9%
Detroit Pistons	91		Comeback	1.4 [926]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -10.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.12	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	23	61%	0.20	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Jason Kapono	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	7	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.06	0.03	13	62%	0.09	4	-0.16	3	67%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	11	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	7	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jamario Moon	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	7	14%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.13	-0.00	10	70%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	4	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.02	9	69%	0.13	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.03
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	11	52%	0.04	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	3.0	31.2	19.5	24.4	3.5	32.5	138.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +44.0%

TOR -4.7%

DET +3.4%

DET +4.7%

DET +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	15.8	16.5	15.4	94.4	102.2	105.7
season	15.6	16.8		108.5	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.3	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.0	14.7	19.0	15.9	15.8
DET	16.7	19.6	13.2	16.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	28	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-7	7	15.0	16.2	-1.18	19.7	15.1	4.52
Jamario Moon	37	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-2	-3	15.8	15.9	-0.15	14.7	17.7	-3.01
T.J. Ford	51	53	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-8	9	15.6	16.1	-0.50	16.2	17.0	-0.76
Andrea Bargnani	37	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	0	-7	15.7	16.0	-0.29	18.7	15.1	3.57
Carlos Delfino	45	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.20	-3	-4	1	16.7	15.0	1.76	18.1	14.9	3.13
Chris Bosh	80	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-7	7	16.1	13.7	2.42	16.2	20.3	-4.09
Anthony Parker	61	62	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	0	-7	16.2	15.0	1.18	15.1	19.7	-4.52
Rasho Nesterovic	61	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	0	-7	15.6	16.3	-0.70	15.6	18.3	-2.71
Jose Calderon	45	44	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	0	-7	15.3	16.4	-1.12	16.8	16.3	0.51

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	32	33	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	3	1	18.4	15.5	2.90	15.4	16.1	-0.67
Jason Maxiell	41	41	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	6	-5	18.4	14.9	3.47	15.1	16.5	-1.34
Rodney Stuckey	45	45	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	3	1	17.5	15.5	1.97	15.7	16.0	-0.22
Theo Ratliff	26	27	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	-3	13	17.8	16.0	1.88	14.3	16.5	-2.22
Lindsey Hunter	19	19	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	4	-1	18.0	16.1	1.89	16.9	15.5	1.40
Amir Johnson	27	26	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	5	-3	18.3	15.8	2.50	14.7	16.3	-1.63
Richard Hamilton	46	46	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.01	7	0	7	15.5	17.7	-2.19	16.1	15.6	0.51
Rasheed Wallace	48	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	1	5	14.9	18.4	-3.47	16.5	15.1	1.34
Tayshaun Prince	48	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	1	5	14.9	18.4	-3.47	16.5	15.1	1.34
Chauncey Billups	48	48	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.06	2	5	-3	15.2	18.1	-2.89	16.2	15.4	0.79
Jarvis Hayes	29	28	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	12	-17	18.5	15.5	2.97	13.7	16.8	-3.16
Antonio McDyess	36	36	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	12	-17	14.2	18.1	-3.81	17.8	14.5	3.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 73, ATL 76	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.89,0.8,0.9,0.95,0.89,0.94,0.99,1	94.2%
MIL 81, PHX 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.98,1	94.0%
LAC 101, TOR 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.83,0.92,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.6%