NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	99		Excitement	7.1 [353]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +13.4%
Atlanta Hawks	89		Comeback	3.3 [230]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -26.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	14	71%	0.20	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Sam Cassell	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.03	15	62%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.00	-0.03	10	64%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	9	44%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	0	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Paul Pierce	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	64%	0.08	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.05
Rajon Rondo	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tony Allen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	6	44%	-0.02	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	12	65%	0.15	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	5	38%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	-0.00	15	53%	0.08	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	-0.00	8	52%	-0.05	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.22,-0.13,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.07	0.01	19	42%	-0.04	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.10	-0.20	-0.03	21	39%	-0.14	2	-0.12	12	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.1	2.4	33.4	19.7	25.1	2.3	33.3	148.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +33.5%

BOS +18.5%

ATL -25.9%

BOS +23.3%

BOS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.6	16.0	15.4	110.0	102.3	105.7
season	15.6	15.4		108.0	104.2
opponent	15.7	15.9		107.2	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.6	17.2	17.0	16.5	16.6
ATL	15.1	16.2	16.4	16.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Cassell	48	46	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.22	16	-6	22	15.6	17.7	-2.11	17.1	14.7	2.33
Glen Davis	44	41	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.25	13	-3	16	16.6	16.5	0.09	17.0	15.0	2.05
Tony Allen	31	29	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-1	12	16.2	16.8	-0.57	16.3	15.8	0.47
James Posey	43	40	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.22	11	-1	12	15.4	17.7	-2.29	16.4	15.6	0.80
P.J. Brown	36	34	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.28	5	5	0	17.1	16.2	0.81	15.0	16.6	-1.54
Kevin Garnett	54	53	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	5	0	16.2	17.1	-0.81	16.6	15.0	1.54
Paul Pierce	50	49	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	12	-14	17.6	15.3	2.28	15.5	16.6	-1.09
Ray Allen	56	56	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.09	0	10	-10	16.8	16.2	0.58	15.9	16.1	-0.15
Kendrick Perkins	46	46	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.05	-3	13	-16	16.5	16.6	-0.09	15.0	17.0	-2.05
Rajon Rondo	42	41	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.01	-6	16	-22	17.7	15.6	2.11	14.7	17.1	-2.33

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	27	30	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.11	0	-10	10	16.6	15.7	0.96	15.0	17.3	-2.30
Josh Smith	48	49	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.33	11	-21	32	14.7	17.5	-2.85	17.8	15.1	2.65
Marvin Williams	56	56	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.04	-2	-8	6	15.0	17.7	-2.71	17.7	14.6	3.13
Salim Stoudamire	10	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-6	2	17.3	15.8	1.51	18.7	16.3	2.40
Solomon Jones	11	11	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-3	-4	18.3	15.6	2.64	17.3	16.5	0.80
Mike Bibby	67	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-9	8	15.8	16.5	-0.69	16.4	17.2	-0.75
Josh Childress	56	58	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.23	-13	3	-16	16.3	15.3	1.00	15.6	18.4	-2.85
Al Horford	80	82	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.15	-17	7	-24	16.3	12.4	3.85	16.3	19.5	-3.22
Joe Johnson	80	83	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.15	-17	7	-24	16.3	12.4	3.85	16.4	18.7	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.61,0.54,0.48,0.29,0.05,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 121, ORL 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.32,0.15,0.1,0.01,0	91.4%
TOR 123, DAL 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.45,0.29,0.33,0.02,0	91.4%
SAC 101, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.3,0.32,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.55,0.29,0.14,0.09,0	91.3%