NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	6.1 [557]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +26.0%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	4.2 [134]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -16.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.1,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.14	0.10	-0.02	12	75%	0.29	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
Allen Iverson	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.03	21	61%	0.17	2	-0.04	12	67%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	7	37%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.01	0.04	20	62%	0.11	6	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	7	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.03	0.01	11	71%	0.16	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.03
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	17	43%	0.01	3	-0.06	8	75%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	8	31%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	25	39%	-0.08	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.07	0.02	26	49%	-0.01	6	-0.16	7	43%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.4	33.4	19.4	27.4	3.5	36.3	148.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +54.4%

DEN +11.2%

GSW -17.7%

DEN +6.9%

GSW -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	14.1	12.8	15.4	106.5	98.1	105.7
season	13.3	13.5		108.2	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.2		107.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.9	12.3	15.0	15.4	14.1
GSW	11.0	13.9	12.7	14.0	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	51	51	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.02	20	-11	31	13.2	14.9	-1.68	13.5	12.2	1.20
J.R. Smith	56	57	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.03	18	-9	27	13.7	14.5	-0.83	13.6	11.9	1.73
Allen Iverson	107	107	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	14.1	0.0	14.09	12.8	0.0	12.82
Kenyon Martin	77	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	3	3	14.4	13.2	1.20	12.7	13.0	-0.30
Linas Kleiza	31	33	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.08	13	-4	17	12.7	14.7	-1.95	13.8	12.4	1.44
Carmelo Anthony	95	95	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	9	-9	14.2	13.1	1.14	12.9	12.4	0.46
Anthony Carter	52	51	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.19	-9	18	-27	14.7	13.5	1.24	11.7	13.8	-2.13
Marcus Camby	66	66	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.24	-12	21	-33	14.7	13.1	1.54	12.0	14.1	-2.07

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	15	16	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-8	7	11.1	13.1	-1.96	12.6	14.4	-1.80
Austin Croshere	6	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-7	5	15.7	12.7	3.01	16.8	14.0	2.84
Al Harrington	78	78	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	-2	-5	12.3	14.2	-1.90	13.4	16.0	-2.66
Stephen Jackson	95	96	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-13	17	12.8	12.9	-0.11	14.7	8.9	5.78
Mickael Pietrus	24	22	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.10	-14	5	-19	13.7	12.6	1.09	11.7	14.7	-2.98
Kelenna Azubuike	21	21	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-1	-7	14.7	12.4	2.35	15.0	13.9	1.19
Andris Biedrins	87	87	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-6	3	12.9	12.6	0.21	14.3	13.0	1.28
Baron Davis	102	103	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	-4	-1	12.7	15.6	-2.91	14.3	8.7	5.55
Monta Ellis	107	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	12.8	0.0	12.82	14.1	0.0	14.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.62,0.56,0.46,0.37,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.22,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 109, GSW 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.19,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.3%
TOR 120, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	92.9%
HOU 95, CHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.33,0.18,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%