NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	101		Excitement	6.5 [477]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +14.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	86		Comeback	4.5 [207]		LVP	LeBron James (CLE): -35.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	9	72%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.08	0.04	10	75%	0.20	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.05
Keyon Dooling	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	0.00	5	50%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	14	68%	0.15	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.02	0.04	12	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	12	46%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	8	22%	-0.08	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Delonte West	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.03	0.04	10	73%	0.15	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.07
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	17	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	15	50%	0.07	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	7	20%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	7	14%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.21	-0.14	0.00	22	33%	-0.23	5	-0.13	8	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	3.5	27.3	18.7	28.1	3.4	37.4	142.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.9%

ORL +26.2%

CLE -35.8%

ORL +16.1%

ORL +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	14.8	16.8	15.4	112.2	93.5	105.7
season	15.1	16.4		109.9	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.6		104.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.3	16.2	15.5	13.4	14.8
CLE	15.7	19.8	15.8	16.6	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	74	73	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.13	20	-5	25	14.7	15.2	-0.56	16.7	17.5	-0.80
Dwight Howard	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.06	18	-3	21	14.4	17.0	-2.62	16.0	21.3	-5.37
Keyon Dooling	26	26	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	8	-1	14.3	15.0	-0.62	20.3	15.5	4.78
Keith Bogans	50	50	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	4	7	14.6	15.1	-0.51	16.9	16.8	0.05
Rashard Lewis	74	76	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	11	-7	14.7	15.0	-0.26	17.1	15.4	1.77
Maurice Evans	40	42	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	11	-7	15.1	14.6	0.51	16.8	16.9	-0.05
Pat Garrity	32	35	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.08	6	9	-3	15.1	14.6	0.52	16.5	17.0	-0.52
Jameer Nelson	64	66	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.20	8	7	1	15.0	14.3	0.62	15.5	20.3	-4.78
Adonal Foyle	14	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	18	-21	17.0	14.4	2.62	21.3	16.0	5.37

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	28	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-12	9	19.6	15.6	3.98	15.1	14.6	0.51
Ben Wallace	55	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	-7	-1	15.7	18.6	-2.94	14.0	15.9	-1.88
Devin Brown	70	70	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.08	-9	-6	-3	16.5	18.0	-1.53	14.8	14.7	0.05
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	59	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	-9	3	17.1	16.3	0.83	14.8	14.7	0.16
Anderson Varejao	29	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-12	9	18.3	16.2	2.15	15.6	14.4	1.18
Daniel Gibson	39	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	-8	1	16.9	16.8	0.10	15.1	14.6	0.46
Delonte West	66	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.07	-15	0	-15	16.0	18.9	-2.91	14.6	15.3	-0.78
Joe Smith	32	30	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-6	-3	18.6	15.9	2.69	15.2	14.6	0.62
LeBron James	82	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	0	-15	16.2	22.0	-5.79	14.7	15.2	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.72,0.59,0.7,0.82,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.37,0.47,0.24,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 106, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.42,0.31,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	92.8%
IND 94, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.03,0,0	92.2%
NYK 100, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.04,0.08,0	92.1%