NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	3.5 [1087]		MVP	Ricky Davis (MIA): +16.4%
Washington Wizards	109		Comeback	1.3 [1292]		LVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): -6.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.28	0.00	0.12	16	97%	0.18	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Quinn	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.12	-0.01	0.08	17	63%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Blake Ahearn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.03
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	44%	0.01	2	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Mark Blount	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	6	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephane Lasme	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	15	43%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	0.01	0.04	8	94%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.02	-0.04	11	55%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.00	-0.01	18	66%	0.16	4	-0.06	8	62%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	6	78%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	10	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dominic McGuire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Oleksiy Pecherov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	27.4	15.8	22.5	1.8	31.2	125.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +27.3%

WAS +7.6%

WAS +11.4%

WAS +2.2%

WAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	18.1	17.0	15.4	115.9	132.9	105.7
season	16.0	16.1		99.0	106.8
opponent	15.5	15.4		107.4	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	19.1	17.7	18.1	17.5	18.1
WAS	15.9	16.6	17.0	18.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Barron	25	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-9	4	18.9	17.8	1.17	17.2	16.9	0.27
Alexander Johnson	30	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-14	14	18.1	18.1	0.04	14.5	18.5	-3.96
Stephane Lasme	21	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.08	-9	-5	-4	16.0	18.8	-2.77	17.0	17.0	-0.02
Blake Ahearn	25	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	-6	-2	19.0	17.7	1.22	18.5	16.3	2.18
Mark Blount	51	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-13	12	18.4	17.7	0.70	16.7	17.5	-0.81
Chris Quinn	72	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-7	0	17.7	20.8	-3.06	17.0	16.9	0.13
Joel Anthony	39	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.08	-15	1	-16	18.4	17.8	0.62	19.0	15.0	3.93
Ricky Davis	75	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-7	0	18.3	16.3	1.99	17.3	14.3	2.98
Daequan Cook	72	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.02	-18	4	-22	18.0	19.2	-1.24	16.3	21.8	-5.55

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	67	65	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.13	21	-7	28	18.0	12.4	5.64	18.6	16.3	2.29
DeShawn Stevenson	55	56	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.02	17	-3	20	17.5	16.0	1.51	18.8	16.6	2.24
Gilbert Arenas	36	39	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.00	14	0	14	14.8	18.8	-3.98	17.5	18.7	-1.24
Caron Butler	74	73	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.12	9	5	4	17.1	16.6	0.43	18.6	14.1	4.49
Darius Songaila	48	49	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.07	15	-1	16	16.6	17.5	-0.88	17.4	19.2	-1.74
Andray Blatche	43	44	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	11	-8	16.5	17.5	-1.00	18.4	17.8	0.55
Dominic McGuire	8	9	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	9	-4	16.6	17.1	-0.43	14.1	18.6	-4.49
Antonio Daniels	44	42	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	14	-14	18.9	14.8	4.04	18.8	17.4	1.39
Nick Young	15	15	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	19	-24	13.7	17.7	-4.01	15.4	18.7	-3.32
Roger Mason Jr.	14	13	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	12	-10	18.4	16.7	1.71	17.9	18.1	-0.22
Oleksiy Pecherov	6	5	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.24	-11	25	-36	11.8	17.4	-5.59	16.6	18.2	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 81, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
ATL 98, TOR 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
SAS 67, SEA 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%