NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	95		Excitement	5.2 [755]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +23.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	86		Comeback	1.2 [910]		LVP	Steve Blake (POR): -11.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.23	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.13	-0.01	29	57%	0.32	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	9	55%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luther Head	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.05	5	73%	0.11	4	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	61%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.02	0.03	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Harris	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.02	8	55%	0.08	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.04	19	56%	0.08	3	-0.09	3	67%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.04	15	61%	0.06	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	18	35%	-0.06	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	12	46%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.6	27.0	20.5	27.5	3.6	31.3	138.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +70.3%

POR -14.8%

POR -17.0%

HOU +5.1%

HOU +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	POR	NBA	HOU	POR	NBA
this game	16.2	16.9	15.4	109.2	98.9	105.7
season	16.2	16.7		104.6	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.2		106.1	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.7	17.1	13.6	17.6	16.2
POR	16.0	17.2	17.7	16.7	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	35	36	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.21	9	0	9	14.7	17.2	-2.51	16.9	17.0	-0.10
Luther Head	49	49	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	1	7	17.1	15.1	2.01	16.4	17.6	-1.22
Carl Landry	37	36	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.05	15	-6	21	15.1	17.0	-1.87	17.5	16.5	0.94
Tracy McGrady	77	79	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	1	7	16.1	16.8	-0.70	16.9	16.9	0.05
Aaron Brooks	44	44	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.19	3	6	-3	17.0	15.3	1.65	17.0	16.8	0.16
Bobby Jackson	43	43	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.05	6	3	3	15.3	17.0	-1.65	16.8	17.0	-0.16
Luis Scola	45	44	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	4	1	17.5	14.8	2.75	16.9	16.9	0.02
Shane Battier	57	58	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.20	-1	10	-11	16.2	16.2	0.03	16.5	17.7	-1.21
Michael Harris	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	12	-15	3.0	16.3	-13.34	0.0	16.9	-16.92
Steve Novak	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	12	-15	3.0	16.3	-13.34	0.0	16.9	-16.92
Dikembe Mutombo	46	46	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	11	-13	16.7	15.7	0.99	17.6	16.2	1.42

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sergio Rodriguez	10	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-5	1	19.7	16.6	3.14	15.9	16.2	-0.31
Channing Frye	30	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.19	1	-10	11	15.1	17.9	-2.83	17.2	15.6	1.69
James Jones	26	26	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-3	-3	15.8	17.4	-1.59	17.2	15.8	1.44
Travis Outlaw	78	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-5	1	16.9	17.3	-0.46	16.0	17.8	-1.83
Jarrett Jack	71	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-6	3	16.9	16.9	0.05	16.1	16.7	-0.62
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-2	-5	16.7	17.9	-1.12	15.9	17.6	-1.74
Joel Przybilla	71	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	3	-15	17.9	12.6	5.26	16.0	16.9	-0.96
Steve Blake	76	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	1	-11	17.0	16.5	0.43	16.2	16.1	0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.25,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 94, POR 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.26,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.44,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0	94.4%
SAC 100, DET 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.48,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0	93.4%
NYK 88, MIN 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.4,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0	93.4%