NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	117		Excitement	6.0 [589]		MVP	Steve Nash (PHX): +43.2%
Phoenix Suns	132		Comeback	16.9 [167]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -10.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.11	0.11	-0.00	11	73%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	16	57%	0.17	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.04
Eduardo Najera	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	2	125%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	14	56%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Nene	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	19	49%	0.05	6	-0.12	5	60%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	18	41%	-0.03	2	-0.08	8	50%	-0.05

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.33	0.17	0.07	18	86%	0.43	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.24	0.13	0.07	22	65%	0.30	1	-0.00	19	89%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.12	0.00	13	65%	0.22	5	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Raja Bell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	12	58%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DJ Strawberry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	0.00	11	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	27%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.5	28.9	15.6	31.4	2.5	37.1	142.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +17.2%

PHX +15.4%

PHX +20.3%

PHX +1.5%

DEN -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	13.9	14.7	15.4	114.7	132.0	105.7
season	13.3	13.8		108.2	111.1
opponent	15.6	15.2		106.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.0	14.4	15.5	13.9	13.9
PHX	13.7	13.8	18.0	13.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	14	13	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.07	9	-24	33	10.6	14.4	-3.74	15.3	14.6	0.76
Linas Kleiza	31	30	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.11	-2	-13	11	12.9	14.3	-1.44	14.4	14.7	-0.31
J.R. Smith	50	50	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-19	23	13.0	14.7	-1.79	14.1	15.2	-1.02
Steven Hunter	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-13	11	6.5	14.0	-7.52	23.0	14.6	8.43
Chucky Atkins	4	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-12	9	5.7	14.2	-8.45	18.7	14.5	4.14
Yakhouba Diawara	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-15	15	12.0	13.9	-1.89	11.0	14.7	-3.69
Marcus Camby	64	64	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.23	-11	-4	-7	14.7	12.5	2.15	14.9	14.2	0.67
Eduardo Najera	50	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-15	15	13.1	14.7	-1.59	14.3	15.0	-0.74
Anthony Carter	64	62	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.13	-21	6	-27	14.4	13.0	1.39	15.1	13.9	1.22
Allen Iverson	91	90	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	-1	-13	14.0	13.2	0.77	14.7	14.5	0.17
Carmelo Anthony	71	70	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.17	-13	-2	-11	14.3	12.9	1.44	14.7	14.4	0.31
Kenyon Martin	68	66	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.08	-22	7	-29	15.2	11.3	3.91	14.2	15.4	-1.20

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	79	80	0.75	-0.25	1.01	-0.01	26	-11	37	14.0	17.1	-3.10	14.9	10.1	4.76
Amar'e Stoudemire	85	87	0.65	-0.15	0.80	-0.03	23	-8	31	15.1	11.9	3.20	14.1	12.3	1.88
Shaquille O'Neal	75	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	4	7	13.8	17.2	-3.45	13.9	13.9	-0.07
Boris Diaw	64	65	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	7	1	15.4	13.3	2.14	13.3	14.9	-1.64
Leandro Barbosa	67	66	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.04	8	7	1	14.4	15.2	-0.88	13.6	14.4	-0.88
Raja Bell	91	93	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.17	10	5	5	14.6	15.2	-0.63	13.8	14.7	-0.87
DJ Strawberry	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	13	-11	23.0	14.6	8.43	6.5	14.0	-7.52
Gordan Giricek	38	41	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.08	-13	28	-41	15.8	14.0	1.80	13.3	14.3	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.17,0.21,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.26,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.6,0.82,0.9,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 89, GSW 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.31,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.41,0.53,0.78,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.98,1	90.4%
MIL 81, CHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.16,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.53,0.36,0.65,0.78,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.98,1	90.3%
CLE 90, IND 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.28,0.3,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.17,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.53,0.36,0.71,0.91,0.75,0.63,0.94,0.98,1	89.3%