NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	107		Excitement	6.1 [558]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +19.4%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	3.9 [254]		LVP	JJ Redick (ORL): -12.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.05	0.03	13	80%	0.22	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	87%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	19	62%	0.15	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.06	0.03	7	79%	0.15	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	10	73%	0.08	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	1	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	13	35%	-0.05	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.06

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	-0.00	-0.02	12	75%	0.24	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.02
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.06	-0.03	12	66%	0.11	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.07
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.04	0.03	14	57%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.02	18	55%	0.02	2	-0.07	8	50%	-0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	5	17%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.7	28.2	17.4	28.3	2.5	37.7	143.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +48.7%

SAS +0.4%

ORL -9.7%

SAS +9.6%

SAS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.4	117.6	105.4	105.7
season	16.5	15.1		104.7	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.3		104.6	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	15.5	16.4	15.6	16.0
ORL	14.8	17.9	15.7	13.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	66	66	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.02	19	-9	28	16.2	15.6	0.51	15.1	16.5	-1.44
Michael Finley	75	75	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.10	14	-4	18	15.5	18.3	-2.79	14.9	17.8	-2.89
Tim Duncan	64	66	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.02	16	-6	22	15.8	16.5	-0.72	15.7	14.8	0.92
Manu Ginobili	62	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	0	10	16.6	14.8	1.74	15.2	16.0	-0.71
Bruce Bowen	77	80	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	0	10	16.3	14.3	2.04	15.9	12.2	3.70
Ime Udoka	44	44	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	12	-14	16.4	15.6	0.81	16.6	14.4	2.20
Fabricio Oberto	25	23	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.18	-5	15	-20	16.7	15.8	0.92	13.2	16.2	-3.00
Matt Bonner	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	11	-12	3.2	16.6	-13.35	8.7	15.7	-7.03
Kurt Thomas	13	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	12	-14	16.6	15.9	0.71	17.0	15.2	1.78
Jacque Vaughn	25	26	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.19	-9	19	-28	15.6	16.2	-0.51	16.5	15.1	1.44

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	12	11	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.00	4	-14	18	18.7	15.0	3.68	15.5	16.1	-0.63
Keyon Dooling	65	64	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.20	7	-17	24	15.0	16.7	-1.75	16.4	15.1	1.28
Hedo Turkoglu	20	19	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-11	12	14.5	15.7	-1.17	16.6	15.9	0.72
Keith Bogans	47	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.12	2	-12	14	15.4	15.6	-0.22	16.3	15.7	0.64
Jameer Nelson	15	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-6	2	15.0	15.6	-0.56	16.3	15.9	0.39
Brian Cook	7	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-8	6	16.3	15.4	0.89	17.5	15.9	1.63
Maurice Evans	63	62	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-1	-8	15.4	15.6	-0.17	16.5	15.0	1.53
JJ Redick	17	16	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	-12	2	-14	16.5	15.2	1.30	13.5	16.5	-3.05
Rashard Lewis	79	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.19	-8	-2	-6	15.5	15.5	-0.08	16.1	15.4	0.73
Carlos Arroyo	55	54	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.17	-15	5	-20	16.3	14.3	2.00	14.8	17.8	-2.94
Dwight Howard	80	80	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.21	-14	4	-18	15.0	18.7	-3.68	16.1	15.5	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.19,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 99, BKN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.1,0.05,0,0	92.6%
CLE 105, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.31,0.04,0,0,0	92.5%
LAC 91, NJN 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	92.3%