NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	96		Excitement	5.0 [794]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +28.6%
Houston Rockets	106		Comeback	1.6 [908]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (HOU): -16.4%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.15	-0.01	0.07	26	66%	0.15	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	10	60%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	14	46%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Jannero Pargo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	13	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	15	42%	-0.03	2	-0.04	6	17%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.22	0.06	-0.01	27	71%	0.34	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.02	-0.02	13	71%	0.20	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.3	24.4	15.5	22.4	2.6	26.3	116.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +45.9%

HOU +7.9%

NOH -2.5%

NOH -1.3%

NOH -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	HOU	NBA	NOH	HOU	NBA
this game	15.6	16.4	15.4	106.7	117.8	105.7
season	15.9	16.2		109.6	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.7		100.3	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.5	17.0	16.7	13.1	15.6
HOU	14.5	13.0	18.5	20.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	59	59	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-9	8	15.9	15.0	0.90	15.7	17.7	-2.08
Melvin Ely	15	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-3	-4	17.2	15.3	1.89	12.7	17.1	-4.45
Mike James	10	9	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-2	-6	19.0	15.2	3.80	11.8	16.9	-5.11
Julian Wright	52	51	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-8	6	15.6	15.7	-0.06	16.9	15.7	1.21
Ryan Bowen	40	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	-1	-8	16.6	14.8	1.76	15.5	17.1	-1.54
Jannero Pargo	48	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-5	0	15.0	16.3	-1.24	16.4	16.4	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	80	81	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-8	6	15.2	19.0	-3.80	16.9	11.8	5.11
Tyson Chandler	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-7	4	15.3	17.2	-1.89	17.1	12.7	4.45
Chris Paul	71	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.18	-13	3	-16	15.2	17.1	-1.88	17.1	13.6	3.46

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	56	55	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-2	14	16.5	16.2	0.23	14.8	17.0	-2.21
Tracy McGrady	90	90	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	16.4	0.0	16.38	15.6	0.0	15.62
Luther Head	42	42	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-3	16	16.6	16.2	0.41	15.0	16.2	-1.21
Rafer Alston	57	57	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.11	11	-1	12	17.0	15.3	1.70	15.6	15.6	0.07
Shane Battier	74	74	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.24	1	9	-8	17.0	13.5	3.50	15.1	17.9	-2.74
Steve Novak	18	18	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	-1	12	13.6	17.1	-3.53	17.4	15.2	2.21
Bobby Jackson	33	33	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	11	-12	15.3	17.0	-1.70	15.6	15.6	-0.07
Luis Scola	46	46	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	15	-20	16.3	16.5	-0.19	16.3	14.9	1.40
Dikembe Mutombo	34	35	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.05	-2	12	-14	16.2	16.5	-0.23	17.0	14.8	2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 89, CHA 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
WAS 87, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
ORL 86, CLE 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.76,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%