NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	117		Excitement	4.9 [828]		MVP	Brandan Wright (GSW): +8.6%
Golden State Warriors	110		Comeback	1.0 [293]		LVP	Al Harrington (GSW): -11.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	22	54%	0.11	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Salim Stoudamire	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.02	11	67%	0.09	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Mike Bibby	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	9	77%	0.10	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Josh Childress	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	72%	0.14	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	14	57%	0.12	6	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	11	36%	0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Al Horford	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	10	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.05	27	58%	0.13	4	-0.11	6	50%	-0.03
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.03	8	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.06	20	54%	0.03	3	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	18	32%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	30.4	15.4	25.7	2.0	31.3	130.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +34.3%

ATL +4.5%

ATL +13.7%

GSW -3.7%

ATL +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	GSW	NBA	ATL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	12.4	15.4	113.6	105.8	105.7
season	15.4	13.5		104.2	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.7		107.9	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.6	15.4	16.4	17.8	15.4
GSW	11.9	14.6	9.9	14.1	12.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	93	92	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.33	2	5	-3	15.1	18.1	-2.97	12.3	13.6	-1.31
Josh Smith	87	89	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.29	3	4	-1	14.8	18.7	-3.95	12.2	13.9	-1.69
Jeremy Richardson	23	25	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	-4	15	18.3	14.6	3.66	14.3	11.8	2.50
Josh Childress	68	67	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	8	-9	16.4	13.5	2.84	12.2	12.8	-0.60
Salim Stoudamire	45	46	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.20	2	5	-3	17.4	13.9	3.56	12.8	12.1	0.64
Al Horford	42	44	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.07	11	-4	15	13.1	17.0	-3.88	12.7	12.2	0.53
Mike Bibby	56	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	2	3	13.9	17.2	-3.22	12.0	12.9	-0.88
Zaza Pachulia	19	19	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	-1	9	17.5	14.9	2.59	13.8	12.1	1.67
Marvin Williams	82	82	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.28	-6	13	-19	15.4	15.5	-0.13	12.0	13.8	-1.77

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandan Wright	54	53	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.43	12	-19	31	12.0	12.8	-0.80	16.9	13.8	3.14
Kelenna Azubuike	54	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.42	9	-16	25	11.7	13.2	-1.42	15.8	15.0	0.77
Austin Croshere	20	19	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	1	-9	14.8	11.9	2.94	19.7	14.4	5.30
Chris Webber	37	37	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.05	-10	3	-13	12.6	12.3	0.22	12.1	17.3	-5.12
Mickael Pietrus	59	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.05	-8	1	-9	12.4	12.4	-0.04	13.9	17.5	-3.56
Matt Barnes	45	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	0	-7	11.4	13.2	-1.88	13.4	17.0	-3.66
Al Harrington	53	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	6	-19	13.7	11.1	2.68	17.0	13.8	3.21
Baron Davis	98	97	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-4	1	12.2	15.5	-3.27	15.8	8.8	6.99
Monta Ellis	100	98	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.29	-7	0	-7	12.4	11.7	0.70	15.4	15.6	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.19,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 98, DET 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
NYK 92, DAL 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.03,0,0	95.2%
ATL 103, CLE 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%