NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	104		Excitement	5.1 [779]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +17.2%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	1.7 [982]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -16.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17	0.18	0.05	0.05	15	80%	0.26	4	-0.09	11	100%	0.05
Jordan Farmar	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.03	-0.04	8	50%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Sasha Vujacic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.00	-0.05	10	59%	0.11	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	11	58%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Ronny Turiaf	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	4	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	10	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	9	39%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	15	67%	0.13	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.01	0.05	12	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	13	50%	0.03	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	8	33%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.05	-0.03	17	47%	0.02	9	-0.18	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.4	31.6	18.4	29.4	3.7	33.0	144.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +31.7%

LAL +4.9%

LAL +5.7%

LAL +6.2%

LAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	13.7	15.4	105.1	94.9	105.7
season	14.6	16.0		110.6	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.2		108.3	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.1	14.4	14.6	17.8	15.4
MIA	13.2	12.7	15.4	13.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sasha Vujacic	39	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	0	10	17.1	14.3	2.81	14.4	13.1	1.32
Kobe Bryant	86	87	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	3	4	15.5	14.8	0.75	13.3	16.5	-3.22
Jordan Farmar	40	42	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	3	4	17.2	14.2	3.06	14.3	13.2	1.16
Lamar Odom	87	86	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	6	4	2	15.9	11.9	3.99	14.1	10.8	3.34
Pau Gasol	75	74	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	6	-2	14.4	18.7	-4.39	13.0	15.6	-2.53
Luke Walton	45	44	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	7	-4	13.3	17.2	-3.87	13.8	13.6	0.19
Ronny Turiaf	24	25	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	4	2	18.7	14.4	4.39	15.6	13.0	2.53
Vladimir Radmanovic	40	39	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	6	-2	14.9	15.8	-0.92	12.6	14.3	-1.69
Derek Fisher	59	57	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	7	-4	14.2	17.2	-3.06	13.2	14.3	-1.16

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Banks	29	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-12	14	12.5	14.2	-1.67	16.4	15.0	1.45
Earl Barron	16	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.03	-7	-3	-4	14.4	13.5	0.84	16.8	15.2	1.66
Mark Blount	77	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-9	8	13.4	14.5	-1.13	14.7	18.0	-3.33
Ricky Davis	60	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.07	-13	3	-16	13.7	13.7	0.00	14.8	16.4	-1.60
Shawn Marion	92	92	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	13.7	13.3	0.41	15.2	17.7	-2.46
Dwyane Wade	85	85	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-3	-4	13.3	15.7	-2.38	15.7	13.5	2.24
Dorell Wright	66	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-4	-2	14.2	12.6	1.55	16.3	13.6	2.73
Jason Williams	70	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	2	-14	14.2	12.5	1.67	15.0	16.4	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.24,0.37,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 94, CLE 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.6%
MIA 111, PHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.11,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
SEA 109, CLE 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%