NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	118		Excitement	5.5 [678]		MVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): +10.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	108		Comeback	1.2 [728]		LVP	Nick Collison (SEA): -11.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gray	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	10	58%	0.09	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Duhon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.04	0.02	18	54%	0.09	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.04	16	51%	0.11	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	64%	0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Viktor Khryapa	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	39%	0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Joakim Noah	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	8	39%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	0.01	0.03	9	42%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.01	5	79%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	15	56%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	12	66%	0.13	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.02
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	83%	0.12	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	-0.00	0.07	6	69%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	1.8	28.3	15.8	24.2	2.3	39.5	139.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +11.1%

SEA -3.4%

CHI +34.2%

CHI +10.1%

SEA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SEA	NBA	CHI	SEA	NBA
this game	15.6	14.6	15.4	124.2	112.5	105.7
season	15.0	14.5		102.2	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.5		107.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.7	16.9	18.0	14.4	15.6
SEA	15.7	15.1	16.2	11.9	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	73	72	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.13	20	-10	30	15.6	15.5	0.13	14.7	14.0	0.69
Ben Wallace	59	58	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.12	20	-10	30	16.1	14.7	1.37	15.3	13.4	1.93
Joe Smith	61	62	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	-1	12	14.4	17.7	-3.33	14.6	14.4	0.19
Kirk Hinrich	50	52	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	-3	16	14.8	16.5	-1.65	16.4	12.4	4.02
Chris Duhon	48	49	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	11	-12	16.4	14.8	1.52	12.8	16.4	-3.69
Andres Nocioni	50	52	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.08	3	7	-4	14.9	16.3	-1.39	14.8	14.3	0.49
Ben Gordon	61	62	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.26	-4	14	-18	15.7	15.4	0.34	13.7	16.2	-2.50
Aaron Gray	35	34	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.23	-5	15	-20	16.7	14.9	1.76	14.4	14.6	-0.23
Joakim Noah	31	32	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.18	-4	14	-18	16.6	15.1	1.55	14.2	14.7	-0.47
Viktor Khryapa	7	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	13	-16	15.1	15.6	-0.49	13.1	14.7	-1.53

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Swift	10	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.05	-1	-9	8	15.8	14.4	1.38	19.2	15.2	4.02
Johan Petro	45	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-13	16	14.9	14.3	0.61	15.2	15.9	-0.76
Nick Collison	56	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-11	12	14.0	15.3	-1.31	14.6	17.1	-2.46
Wally Szczerbiak	70	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-13	16	13.6	17.3	-3.71	14.7	17.6	-2.86
Kevin Durant	63	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	-2	-6	14.9	14.0	0.86	15.2	16.3	-1.04
Luke Ridnour	48	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-10	10	12.5	16.6	-4.12	16.0	15.2	0.81
Earl Watson	48	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	0	-10	16.6	12.5	4.12	14.7	16.6	-1.87
Kurt Thomas	29	30	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	2	-14	16.4	13.7	2.70	18.0	14.5	3.46
Delonte West	33	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-8	6	14.0	14.9	-0.86	16.6	15.0	1.59
Damien Wilkins	32	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	1	-12	15.7	14.0	1.73	16.9	14.9	1.97
Chris Wilcox	46	46	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.02	-13	3	-16	14.2	14.9	-0.75	15.5	15.7	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 93, BOS 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
IND 94, MIA 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0	94.6%
CLE 103, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.13,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0	94.4%