NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	120		Excitement	11.1 [28]		MVP	Corey Maggette (LAC): +62.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	125		Comeback	4.7 [302]		LVP	Tim Thomas (LAC): -26.4%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.63	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.63,0.63,0.63	0.21	0.43	0.02	14	76%	0.71	3	-0.08	18	89%	0.06
Al Thornton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,-0.04,0.07,0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	19	57%	0.13	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Guillermo Diaz	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.09
Josh Powell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Aaron Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	6	33%	-0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.19	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.01	-0.16	0.02	14	54%	0.01	3	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.26	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.26	0.09	-0.34	0.01	13	79%	0.16	5	-0.42	3	33%	-0.06

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23	0.23	0.05	0.19	0.00	11	64%	0.31	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.05
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.12,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.14	0.02	12	58%	0.26	1	-0.08	12	58%	-0.10
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.03	0.00	25	63%	0.23	5	-0.17	4	100%	0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.01	10	59%	0.08	1	-0.05	9	78%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11	-0.11	0.09	-0.19	0.02	15	66%	0.22	4	-0.33	11	73%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	32.6	16.4	27.5	3.4	37.2	1.7	23.3	167.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +6.3%

MEM +7.7%

MEM +31.0%

MEM +8.9%

LAC -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MEM	NBA	LAC	MEM	NBA
this game	14.5	15.2	15.4	112.1	116.8	105.7
season	15.6	14.9		99.5	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		109.9	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
LAC	14.7	15.5	14.5	15.0	11.5	14.5
MEM	15.3	16.5	14.3	17.0	11.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	38	40	0.37	-0.87	1.23	0.25	4	-9	13	15.9	13.7	2.16	16.3	14.6	1.69
Quinton Ross	38	40	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-10	15	13.9	14.8	-0.94	16.1	14.7	1.37
Guillermo Diaz	3	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-5	5	3.7	14.8	-11.12	0.7	15.7	-15.00
Josh Powell	48	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-6	7	15.2	13.9	1.29	15.7	14.9	0.72
Tim Thomas	89	88	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-10	15	14.9	12.2	2.71	16.1	11.4	4.71
Aaron Williams	14	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	1	-7	16.7	14.1	2.57	13.7	15.5	-1.83
Dan Dickau	4	4	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.09	-4	-1	-3	4.7	14.9	-10.10	0.5	15.8	-15.32
Corey Maggette	94	94	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.21	-5	0	-5	14.6	13.2	1.42	15.6	12.5	3.08
Al Thornton	42	45	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	1	-7	13.6	15.0	-1.37	14.4	15.8	-1.38
Cuttino Mobley	96	94	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.34	-12	7	-19	14.6	13.8	0.73	15.1	16.3	-1.21
Sam Cassell	69	67	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.60	-9	4	-13	13.7	15.9	-2.16	14.6	16.3	-1.69

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	100	100	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-7	19	15.1	17.7	-2.64	14.4	16.1	-1.78
Mike Miller	91	92	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-2	9	15.0	16.9	-1.92	14.6	13.9	0.71
Rudy Gay	104	104	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	1	3	15.1	19.0	-3.87	14.5	15.0	-0.54
Darko Milicic	49	49	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.15	3	2	1	14.8	15.6	-0.82	15.2	13.8	1.42
Hakim Warrick	55	56	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	1	3	16.3	14.2	2.08	14.6	14.4	0.20
Casey Jacobsen	9	6	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.15	-1	6	-7	7.0	16.0	-9.00	10.0	14.7	-4.74
Juan Carlos Navarro	92	93	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	5	-5	16.1	10.1	6.02	14.2	16.0	-1.75
Bobby Jones	25	25	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.13	-4	9	-13	15.7	15.1	0.57	14.4	14.5	-0.15
Andre Brown	10	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	5	-5	15.9	15.2	0.72	15.7	14.4	1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.84,0.46,0.31,0.45,0.22,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 108, ORL 114	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.83,0.73,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.46,0.55,0.72,0.55,0.58,1	89.2%
DEN 94, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.84,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.84,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.27,1	89.2%
IND 110, MIN 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	88.5%