NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	113		Excitement	9.0 [108]		MVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): +61.0%
Sacramento Kings	116		Comeback	44.2 [21]		LVP	Darko Milicic (MEM): -16.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.29	0.21	0.09	0.01	13	86%	0.64	3	-0.34	10	90%	0.04
Mike Miller	0.26	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.15	0.10	-0.00	9	100%	0.31	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13	0.05	0.03	-0.04	16	53%	0.17	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	4	73%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Hakim Warrick	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mike Conley	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.06	0.02	9	68%	0.18	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	13	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	6	37%	-0.03	4	-0.14	4	0%	-0.07

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.61	0.61	0.08	0.53	0.00	16	58%	0.63	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.05
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.14	0.00	17	68%	0.33	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
John Salmons	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.01	21	60%	0.17	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	7	43%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justin Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0	-0.00	0.03	0.03	0.06	16	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	12	100%	0.09
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	39%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.5	28.4	16.7	29.1	2.4	43.4	145.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM -9.9%

SAC +3.4%

SAC +4.5%

SAC +50.8%

SAC +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAC	NBA	MEM	SAC	NBA
this game	14.1	14.6	15.4	111.9	116.0	105.7
season	14.9	14.9		103.3	105.6
opponent	15.0	14.9		108.0	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.8	14.3	13.0	15.2	14.1
SAC	13.4	15.7	16.5	13.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	68	68	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.01	7	-10	17	13.5	15.3	-1.85	14.6	14.7	-0.08
Hakim Warrick	31	30	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.11	3	-6	9	13.0	14.5	-1.48	15.5	14.2	1.33
Juan Carlos Navarro	76	77	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.12	8	-11	19	14.4	13.2	1.20	14.1	16.2	-2.10
Kyle Lowry	40	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.45	11	-14	25	12.6	15.0	-2.33	15.6	14.0	1.66
Mike Miller	65	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-1	-1	14.3	13.7	0.57	15.0	13.9	1.09
Pau Gasol	77	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.48	-5	2	-7	14.6	12.2	2.48	14.8	13.9	0.95
Rudy Gay	85	82	-0.92	0.42	-1.34	-0.36	-19	16	-35	14.2	13.2	1.04	14.3	16.1	-1.78
Mike Conley	63	62	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.44	-18	15	-33	14.6	13.2	1.45	13.9	15.8	-1.88

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Douby	36	35	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.53	5	-2	7	13.4	15.3	-1.85	12.3	15.0	-2.71
Brad Miller	83	83	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.47	3	0	3	14.7	14.2	0.51	14.1	14.1	0.00
Francisco Garcia	89	89	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	0	3	14.4	16.3	-1.88	13.8	16.3	-2.58
Beno Udrih	86	86	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	2	-1	14.7	14.0	0.70	14.4	12.2	2.18
John Salmons	90	91	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.44	1	2	-1	14.7	13.7	1.00	14.3	12.3	1.95
Spencer Hawes	22	23	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	0	3	14.2	14.7	-0.48	13.0	14.4	-1.32
Dahntay Jones	21	22	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.07	3	0	3	14.0	14.8	-0.76	13.9	14.1	-0.25
Justin Williams	1	1	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	5	-7	16.0	14.6	1.41	3.0	14.2	-11.17
Mikki Moore	72	75	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.12	-2	5	-7	15.4	12.6	2.77	15.2	10.9	4.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.24,0.28,1	91.3%
DET 87, UTA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.15,0.1,0.23,0.42,1	91.3%
MIL 86, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.15,0.15,1	91.1%