NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	4.4 [916]		MVP	Rashad McCants (MIN): +11.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Comeback	1.1 [598]		LVP	Ricky Davis (MIA): -12.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Daequan Cook	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.01	0.05	10	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Luke Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	18	58%	0.08	6	-0.14	7	71%	0.01
Ricky Davis	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	5	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.02	-0.05	24	55%	0.17	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.04	9	74%	0.09	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	20	44%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.0	31.1	15.4	24.6	2.5	30.2	130.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +32.9%

MIA -6.9%

MIN +5.8%

MIN +17.6%

MIN +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.4	17.9	15.4	105.8	116.1	105.7
season	16.0	15.9		99.0	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.4		109.6	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	16.9	16.3	11.9	15.4
MIN	15.0	16.6	18.0	22.4	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Jackson	32	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.31	9	-19	28	13.1	16.8	-3.70	20.8	16.2	4.61
Earl Barron	16	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-11	12	15.9	15.3	0.60	17.6	17.9	-0.30
Alexander Johnson	9	9	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-9	8	16.6	15.2	1.31	16.0	18.1	-2.12
Joel Anthony	9	10	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-5	0	16.4	15.3	1.18	15.1	18.3	-3.16
Jason Williams	25	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-5	0	17.2	14.6	2.56	15.0	18.9	-3.88
Daequan Cook	51	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-10	10	14.3	16.9	-2.63	18.9	16.5	2.33
Chris Quinn	35	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-3	-4	16.0	14.9	1.09	16.8	18.7	-1.98
Mark Blount	64	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-10	10	15.3	15.7	-0.40	18.5	16.2	2.28
Ricky Davis	45	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.10	-17	7	-24	17.1	13.5	3.58	16.4	19.5	-3.10
Dwyane Wade	70	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.19	-10	0	-10	15.2	16.4	-1.22	18.3	15.7	2.61
Udonis Haslem	74	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.11	-15	5	-20	15.1	17.2	-2.07	18.0	16.9	1.13

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Jefferson	71	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-3	16	18.2	16.4	1.79	14.6	18.3	-3.73
Ryan Gomes	72	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-1	12	18.3	15.8	2.53	14.5	19.5	-5.03
Rashad McCants	63	63	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	2	6	18.9	15.2	3.65	15.7	14.5	1.24
Sebastian Telfair	74	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.12	10	0	10	17.8	18.7	-0.94	15.0	17.5	-2.45
Marko Jaric	76	74	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	6	-2	18.4	14.7	3.63	15.1	16.9	-1.78
Corey Brewer	31	30	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	5	0	15.6	19.1	-3.50	17.6	14.2	3.40
Craig Smith	24	25	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	8	-6	15.6	18.8	-3.19	17.4	14.6	2.84
Antoine Walker	20	22	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.18	-3	13	-16	17.6	18.0	-0.39	17.2	14.7	2.48
Greg Buckner	4	4	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	10	-10	15.0	18.0	-3.04	11.0	15.6	-4.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.96,0.95,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 98, NJN 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
MIA 74, CHI 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	95.8%
HOU 101, UTA 120	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%