NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	101		Excitement	1.7 [1308]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +8.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	78		Comeback	1.0 [1199]		LVP	Marko Jaric (MIN): -4.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	20	67%	0.10	3	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.02	12	52%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Josh Howard	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.00	-0.07	21	47%	0.07	2	-0.00	5	80%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	7	29%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	17%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Trenton Hassell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Ager	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	0.00	0.08	7	71%	-0.00	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	57%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	38%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	14	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	5	30%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	7	43%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	0.00	0.08	10	70%	-0.01	4	-0.02	10	70%	-0.03
Marko Jaric	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.04	14	50%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.4	30.2	16.3	26.4	2.0	27.4	134.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +27.9%

DAL +5.7%

DAL +6.6%

DAL +7.9%

DAL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIN	NBA	DAL	MIN	NBA
this game	18.0	14.3	15.4	112.2	88.6	105.7
season	16.1	15.9		108.9	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.4		109.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.0	18.9	17.5	19.7	18.0
MIN	16.0	16.2	13.8	11.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	62	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.34	25	-2	27	16.8	20.7	-3.99	14.9	13.0	1.85
Josh Howard	63	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.17	18	5	13	16.8	20.9	-4.13	15.0	12.9	2.04
Eddie Jones	45	44	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.15	17	6	11	18.8	17.2	1.56	14.5	14.2	0.32
Devean George	43	42	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.06	11	12	-1	18.0	18.0	-0.04	13.8	14.8	-0.93
DeSagana Diop	48	48	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.15	14	9	5	17.6	18.4	-0.76	14.6	13.9	0.68
Jason Terry	38	39	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.19	15	8	7	19.4	16.9	2.51	14.4	14.3	0.12
Brandon Bass	45	44	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	12	-1	18.7	17.3	1.47	14.0	14.6	-0.59
Devin Harris	43	44	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.19	13	10	3	17.7	18.2	-0.49	14.4	14.2	0.18
Juwan Howard	17	16	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	23	-23	21.1	17.3	3.84	14.1	14.4	-0.31
Jose Juan Barea	17	15	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.07	0	23	-23	16.6	18.3	-1.74	13.1	14.6	-1.43
Trenton Hassell	21	20	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	28	-33	19.1	17.7	1.49	13.6	14.5	-0.93
Maurice Ager	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	27	-31	19.0	17.9	1.10	9.7	14.7	-5.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Richard	20	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-24	25	12.7	14.8	-2.03	17.5	18.1	-0.64
Mark Madsen	18	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-20	17	15.0	14.1	0.86	20.3	17.4	2.94
Craig Smith	26	27	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-18	13	13.3	14.7	-1.43	18.0	18.0	0.05
Corey Brewer	32	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.19	-11	-12	1	15.1	13.9	1.27	16.5	18.8	-2.28
Antoine Walker	35	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-21	19	13.5	14.9	-1.43	19.5	16.9	2.62
Rashad McCants	44	44	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-20	17	13.5	15.1	-1.64	19.0	17.1	1.91
Gerald Green	26	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-15	7	13.2	14.8	-1.60	19.6	17.3	2.29
Sebastian Telfair	64	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.12	-17	-6	-11	14.4	14.2	0.15	17.2	20.1	-2.94
Marko Jaric	60	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.29	-24	1	-25	14.9	13.0	1.99	17.8	18.4	-0.52
Ryan Gomes	50	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	-7	-9	15.1	13.3	1.81	18.0	18.0	0.09
Al Jefferson	65	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.34	-27	4	-31	14.9	12.8	2.08	16.9	21.0	-4.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 105, IND 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
BOS 100, CHI 71	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
DAL 123, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%