NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	77		Excitement	8.0 [230]		MVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): +35.7%
Denver Nuggets	80		Comeback	7.1 [198]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -20.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	13	62%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	53%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ime Udoka	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Robert Horry	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12	0.01	-0.12	0.01	2	67%	-0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.12	-0.03	-0.10	-0.01	19	44%	-0.05	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.08
Tim Duncan	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.23,-0.17,-0.11,-0.03,-0.07,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.08	-0.01	20	40%	0.02	4	-0.22	10	60%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.36	0.36	0.15	0.21	0.00	18	66%	0.39	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.07
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.17	0.01	6	58%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24,-0.06	-0.06	-0.14	0.07	-0.01	8	22%	0.00	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	17	44%	-0.07	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	8	31%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	33.3	16.0	25.2	2.4	33.2	135.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +19.9%

DEN +16.9%

SAS -0.4%

SAS -6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	17.6	15.0	15.4	86.5	90.9	105.7
season	16.5	13.3		104.7	108.2
opponent	15.2	15.3		105.4	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.5	17.0	18.7	17.0	17.6
DEN	13.8	13.6	14.0	19.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	5	5	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.06	7	-10	17	17.0	17.6	-0.58	17.4	14.8	2.57
Robert Horry	32	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	17.1	17.8	-0.76	14.5	15.3	-0.81
Jacque Vaughn	24	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	2	-7	17.7	17.5	0.16	14.1	15.4	-1.28
Bruce Bowen	73	72	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.49	13	-16	29	17.5	18.0	-0.55	15.4	13.0	2.42
DerMarr Johnson	6	6	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.10	-9	6	-15	26.0	16.9	9.06	11.2	15.3	-4.09
Tim Duncan	72	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-6	9	17.6	17.5	0.03	15.0	14.7	0.29
Tony Parker	74	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.47	8	-11	19	17.1	20.0	-2.95	15.2	14.0	1.21
Matt Bonner	43	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.38	4	-7	11	17.4	17.7	-0.30	15.9	14.1	1.82
Ime Udoka	20	19	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.14	-10	7	-17	17.4	17.6	-0.13	14.7	15.1	-0.37
Michael Finley	70	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.30	-6	3	-9	17.4	17.9	-0.50	15.0	14.8	0.25
Fabricio Oberto	26	25	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.09	-18	15	-33	18.5	17.2	1.34	13.4	15.6	-2.20

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Iverson	81	82	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-6	15	15.0	15.1	-0.18	18.0	12.3	5.71
Anthony Carter	53	52	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.54	-1	4	-5	14.4	15.9	-1.56	18.4	16.4	1.96
Kenyon Martin	52	51	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.56	-6	9	-15	14.6	15.5	-0.93	17.5	17.6	-0.00
Marcus Camby	67	67	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	4	-5	14.8	15.5	-0.66	17.4	18.0	-0.60
Carmelo Anthony	68	70	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.50	-7	10	-17	15.2	14.2	1.01	16.7	20.8	-4.12
Nene	35	35	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	-2	7	15.5	14.6	0.84	18.1	17.2	0.98
Linas Kleiza	27	27	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.05	6	-3	9	14.4	15.2	-0.77	17.8	17.4	0.38
Eduardo Najera	22	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.11	6	-3	9	15.5	14.8	0.76	17.8	17.4	0.39
Chucky Atkins	35	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.13	4	-1	5	15.9	14.4	1.56	16.4	18.4	-1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.83,0.75,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.76,0.76,0.65,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.54,0.33,0.37,0.22,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 97, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.71,0.6,0.38,0.22,0.31,0.73,1	90.4%
MIA 80, TOR 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,1	89.9%
ORL 110, ATL 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.73,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.37,0.32,0.28,1	89.9%