NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	109		Excitement	6.4 [498]		MVP	Jason Richardson (CHA): +19.0%
Charlotte Bobcats	97		Comeback	4.9 [165]		LVP	Raymond Felton (CHA): -16.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	6	67%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	20	51%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.02	0.06	10	68%	0.07	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.04
Luol Deng	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.03	15	55%	0.05	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	16	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.04	-0.03	6	44%	0.06	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	9	55%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.18	0.03	0.02	17	74%	0.23	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.02	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	17	57%	0.09	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	1	70%	0.06	1	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Jared Dudley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	11	36%	-0.03	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	8	40%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	15	42%	0.02	5	-0.19	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.0	31.1	15.0	25.0	1.8	31.2	130.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +18.2%

CHA -5.3%

CHI +14.5%

CHI +20.9%

CHI +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CHA	NBA	CHI	CHA	NBA
this game	15.6	15.3	15.4	117.2	104.3	105.7
season	15.0	15.8		102.2	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.5		107.8	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.5	13.9	15.5	17.4	15.6
CHA	15.0	16.7	16.5	13.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	69	70	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-5	22	16.2	13.7	2.52	15.3	15.4	-0.12
Ben Gordon	70	71	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.12	16	-4	20	15.2	16.9	-1.71	15.4	15.1	0.27
Andres Nocioni	30	31	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	4	4	15.4	15.7	-0.27	15.2	15.4	-0.18
Joakim Noah	37	36	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.14	5	7	-2	16.5	15.0	1.46	14.0	16.2	-2.15
Kirk Hinrich	72	72	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	4	4	15.5	15.9	-0.36	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Chris Duhon	44	43	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	12	-12	16.4	14.9	1.53	15.5	15.2	0.35
Joe Smith	46	45	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.01	6	6	0	15.7	15.5	0.18	16.5	14.2	2.26
Luol Deng	72	72	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	6	0	15.2	16.8	-1.53	15.3	15.6	-0.36
Aaron Gray	14	13	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	14	-16	13.6	15.9	-2.28	14.7	15.4	-0.76
Thabo Sefolosha	11	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	16	-20	13.4	15.9	-2.51	16.6	15.2	1.42

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	8	9	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-13	14	14.7	15.4	-0.65	14.9	15.7	-0.77
Derek Anderson	30	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-12	12	14.9	15.5	-0.61	14.6	16.0	-1.39
Emeka Okafor	58	58	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-13	14	15.7	14.7	0.96	15.8	15.2	0.61
Jeff McInnis	53	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	-5	-2	16.6	13.7	2.84	15.9	15.1	0.80
Jason Richardson	74	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.10	-9	-3	-6	15.6	14.3	1.29	15.7	15.1	0.65
Raymond Felton	85	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-5	-2	15.1	17.5	-2.36	15.9	11.4	4.49
Matt Carroll	37	37	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	1	-14	13.9	16.3	-2.46	14.8	16.1	-1.32
Gerald Wallace	78	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.13	-11	-1	-10	15.8	13.2	2.56	15.5	16.1	-0.66
Nazr Mohammed	42	42	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.07	-15	3	-18	14.2	16.3	-2.10	15.6	15.5	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.76,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.43,0.3,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, POR 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%
ORL 93, ATL 76	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.12,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%
MIA 100, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.61,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	92.9%