NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	103		Excitement	4.4 [912]		MVP	Shane Battier (HOU): +15.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	83		Comeback	1.2 [755]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (HOU): -6.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.01	-0.01	9	82%	0.16	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Yao Ming	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	15	63%	0.15	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Luis Scola	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.05	17	65%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	39%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.11	0.02	-0.05	13	38%	0.04	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	15	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	18	53%	0.06	3	-0.05	7	100%	0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	12	38%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Casey Jacobsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	12	46%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Andre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.03	9	55%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	38%	-0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	-0.05	13	29%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.5	33.2	15.7	26.2	2.5	24.5	126.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +35.5%

MEM -3.2%

HOU +5.7%

HOU +14.7%

MEM -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MEM	NBA	HOU	MEM	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.4	110.8	88.3	105.7
season	16.2	14.9		104.6	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.2		109.9	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.1	16.0	15.0	17.5	15.6
MEM	15.2	14.7	16.3	14.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	58	59	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.06	18	2	16	15.2	16.4	-1.22	15.5	14.7	0.71
Bonzi Wells	63	63	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.04	12	8	4	14.6	17.8	-3.18	15.6	14.4	1.15
Shane Battier	78	80	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.10	17	3	14	15.7	15.3	0.33	15.3	14.8	0.48
Yao Ming	62	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	4	12	15.6	15.6	-0.05	15.8	13.9	1.95
Luis Scola	56	55	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.10	16	4	12	16.1	14.9	1.24	14.9	15.6	-0.64
Charles Hayes	55	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	12	-4	15.3	16.0	-0.70	15.0	15.5	-0.46
Luther Head	47	46	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.04	10	10	0	15.6	15.6	-0.03	14.5	15.8	-1.31
Aaron Brooks	40	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.15	6	14	-8	16.9	14.6	2.35	14.4	15.8	-1.46
Dikembe Mutombo	6	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	23	-26	19.5	15.3	4.16	15.9	15.1	0.72

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stromile Swift	40	38	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-20	20	15.0	15.3	-0.29	17.0	14.6	2.39
Hakim Warrick	10	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.09	-5	-15	10	12.8	15.5	-2.68	15.1	15.7	-0.56
Casey Jacobsen	11	11	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	-13	6	13.3	15.4	-2.17	15.8	15.6	0.23
Andre Brown	3	4	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	-14	8	14.7	15.2	-0.54	7.0	16.0	-9.00
Damon Stoudamire	53	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-15	10	15.2	15.1	0.12	15.2	16.1	-0.90
Rudy Gay	50	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	-9	-2	15.7	14.6	1.17	14.9	16.5	-1.63
Kyle Lowry	41	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.17	-15	-5	-10	15.1	15.2	-0.12	16.1	15.2	0.90
Juan Carlos Navarro	45	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-11	2	14.5	15.8	-1.31	16.1	15.1	0.97
Darko Milicic	54	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-7	-6	15.6	14.6	1.07	15.2	16.2	-1.01
Mike Miller	82	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.03	-13	-7	-6	15.5	13.2	2.32	15.8	14.5	1.28
Pau Gasol	81	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	-4	-12	15.3	14.6	0.67	15.7	15.1	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.3,0.24,0.31,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 105, TOR 77	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
CHI 125, BKN 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.3,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.7%
MEM 100, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%