NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Excitement	5.7 [641]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +14.8%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	1.1 [1269]		LVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): -22.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.07	-0.02	9	58%	0.15	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Greg Buckner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	55%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	10	65%	0.06	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02
Gerald Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09	0.03	-0.06	0.07	11	50%	-0.09	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	13	34%	-0.12	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.22	-0.10	-0.10	0.02	18	45%	-0.08	5	-0.14	8	50%	-0.05

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.21	0.00	0.07	21	67%	0.17	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.02
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	21	55%	0.15	4	-0.07	7	57%	-0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	14	39%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	15	51%	0.07	5	-0.11	7	86%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	8	12%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	1.5	30.5	15.7	32.2	2.3	43.5	150.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +35.7%

GSW +4.4%

MIN -12.0%

GSW +19.8%

GSW +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	GSW	NBA	MIN	GSW	NBA
this game	14.6	13.2	15.4	98.1	101.0	105.7
season	15.9	13.5		102.2	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.0		107.9	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.5	16.1	14.4	13.6	14.6
GSW	11.8	13.9	12.7	14.6	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	56	56	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.64	22	-26	48	12.8	16.8	-3.93	14.0	12.2	1.77
Greg Buckner	24	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-10	16	13.8	14.9	-1.09	15.5	12.5	2.99
Corey Brewer	35	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	1	-6	16.0	13.9	2.03	12.5	13.5	-1.00
Gerald Green	12	11	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.15	-13	9	-22	19.3	14.0	5.32	13.7	13.1	0.59
Antoine Walker	50	51	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.34	3	-7	10	14.3	14.9	-0.64	13.8	12.7	1.10
Craig Smith	67	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	1	-6	15.1	13.7	1.35	12.9	13.8	-0.99
Ryan Gomes	59	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-1	-2	14.2	15.2	-0.92	12.0	14.9	-2.91
Rashad McCants	74	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-6	8	13.7	17.0	-3.25	13.7	11.9	1.79
Al Jefferson	88	90	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-2	0	14.6	14.7	-0.12	13.1	13.6	-0.43
Sebastian Telfair	50	50	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.25	-25	21	-46	16.5	12.8	3.67	12.3	14.1	-1.81

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	96	96	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.31	7	-3	10	13.2	12.7	0.49	14.8	11.9	2.98
Baron Davis	91	89	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	1	2	12.8	16.2	-3.37	14.3	16.4	-2.08
Al Harrington	59	59	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	-12	28	12.9	13.6	-0.70	15.3	13.7	1.62
Andris Biedrins	62	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	-3	10	13.0	13.5	-0.50	15.0	14.1	0.86
Stephen Jackson	89	87	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.41	-3	7	-10	13.3	12.5	0.86	14.0	17.9	-3.84
Kelenna Azubuike	51	50	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.40	-7	11	-18	14.0	12.4	1.57	14.5	14.7	-0.18
Matt Barnes	35	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	3	-2	12.9	13.4	-0.52	14.6	14.7	-0.07
Mickael Pietrus	17	17	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.05	1	3	-2	14.5	12.9	1.59	15.6	14.4	1.15
DJ Mbenga	20	20	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	9	-14	13.3	13.2	0.18	13.9	14.8	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 97, GSW 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,1	95.1%
IND 87, MIA 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.89,0.84,0.73,1	94.9%
SAS 77, ATL 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.95,1	94.8%