NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	77		Excitement	4.5 [906]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +11.6%
Atlanta Hawks	86		Comeback	1.1 [1145]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAS): -14.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0	-0.06	0.05	-0.01	10	46%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	6	47%	-0.00	1	-0.05	7	71%	0.01
Charlie Ward	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	22	54%	-0.02	5	-0.11	8	75%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.02	11	32%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.11	0.01	13	64%	0.18	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	18	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	59%	0.06	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	17	42%	0.00	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	-0.08	7	13%	-0.04	3	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	26.0	0.2	30.0	1.8	40.8	124.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +56.7%

SAS -8.3%

SAS -0.4%

SAS -4.5%

ATL +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.3	15.7	83.7	92.5	100.5
season	15.9	15.3		100.1	98.2
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	17.7	15.3	15.2	15.8
ATL	13.3	15.0	16.0	17.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	13	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-11	13	14.9	15.9	-1.01	14.1	15.6	-1.41
Kevin Willis	22	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.30	8	-17	25	15.0	16.0	-1.04	16.5	15.0	1.45
Charlie Ward	24	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-12	15	15.4	15.9	-0.57	14.0	15.8	-1.78
Bruce Bowen	53	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-8	7	15.6	16.1	-0.54	15.2	15.6	-0.39
Hedo Turkoglu	59	59	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-14	19	15.2	16.8	-1.65	16.6	13.2	3.42
Rasho Nesterovic	36	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	-1	-7	17.1	14.9	2.16	16.2	14.8	1.40
Ron Mercer	30	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	3	-15	16.5	15.5	1.05	13.0	16.5	-3.52
Tim Duncan	75	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	15.9	15.2	0.76	15.7	13.8	1.85
Robert Horry	38	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.08	-15	6	-21	15.0	16.3	-1.31	13.7	16.5	-2.76
Tony Parker	68	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	3	-15	15.9	15.4	0.57	15.8	14.0	1.78
Devin Brown	42	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	1	-11	16.4	15.3	1.12	15.5	15.2	0.34

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	82	83	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-5	19	15.5	14.0	1.52	15.7	16.3	-0.60
Stephen Jackson	87	86	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.27	9	0	9	15.6	12.2	3.40	15.9	14.0	1.92
Jason Terry	72	74	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	-2	13	16.0	13.2	2.78	15.9	15.5	0.36
Boris Diaw	51	50	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	2	5	14.9	15.8	-0.89	15.3	16.4	-1.04
Theo Ratliff	73	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	4	1	16.1	12.6	3.43	15.7	16.2	-0.53
Jacque Vaughn	22	19	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	9	-9	12.6	16.2	-3.55	14.9	16.0	-1.07
Dion Glover	51	51	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.14	-1	10	-11	15.3	15.4	-0.02	16.3	15.2	1.04
Nazr Mohammed	27	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	9	-9	13.4	16.1	-2.73	16.3	15.6	0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 104, PHX 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.79,0.91,0.98,1	94.9%
ORL 99, CLE 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.97,0.95,1	94.8%
MIN 101, GSW 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.85,1	94.8%