NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	99		Excitement	8.4 [174]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +18.9%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	6.2 [456]		LVP	Jannero Pargo (NOH): -10.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	70%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.04	0.15	-0.10	0.01	11	72%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Julian Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Melvin Ely	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hilton Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	23	53%	0.07	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,0.05,-0.07	0.05	-0.10	0.01	20	65%	0.21	5	-0.27	6	83%	0.02
Jannero Pargo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.14	0.01	-0.02	17	29%	-0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.19	0.19	-0.05	0.20	-0.04	28	46%	0.31	5	-0.12	13	85%	0.05
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.07	-0.00	5	91%	0.19	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	73%	0.10	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.01	9	72%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	13	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.05	-0.10	0.02	16	58%	0.06	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	31.6	15.8	24.2	2.5	29.4	131.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +15.3%

DEN +22.7%

NOH -0.5%

DEN +16.0%

NOH -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	16.7	13.0	15.4	103.1	107.1	105.7
season	15.9	13.3		109.6	108.2
opponent	15.2	15.7		105.4	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.4	14.5	16.4	21.3	16.7
DEN	12.3	14.3	12.6	13.0	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Wright	18	18	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.01	4	-10	14	19.8	16.0	3.80	14.9	12.6	2.26
Melvin Ely	14	14	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.04	5	-11	16	13.4	17.2	-3.82	12.5	13.1	-0.63
Hilton Armstrong	28	30	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-6	6	16.6	16.7	-0.06	12.8	13.1	-0.35
Bobby Jackson	44	43	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.17	-8	2	-10	16.7	16.7	0.07	12.0	13.9	-1.85
Jannero Pargo	74	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-7	8	16.9	16.0	0.83	13.8	10.5	3.22
David West	86	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.31	-7	1	-8	16.0	22.5	-6.49	12.6	16.7	-4.15
Rasual Butler	86	88	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.36	-6	0	-6	16.0	23.0	-7.05	12.7	15.9	-3.18
Chris Paul	74	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	-1	-4	16.5	17.4	-0.94	12.9	13.5	-0.61
Tyson Chandler	56	57	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.32	-14	8	-22	18.7	13.9	4.82	13.9	11.8	2.12

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Iverson	92	91	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.29	9	-3	12	12.9	15.3	-2.44	16.6	18.0	-1.38
Carmelo Anthony	84	84	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	-1	8	12.7	15.1	-2.37	15.8	22.6	-6.74
Kenyon Martin	70	70	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	2	2	13.4	12.2	1.16	17.1	15.7	1.42
Anthony Carter	58	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	2	2	13.0	13.1	-0.06	17.4	15.7	1.71
Marcus Camby	80	78	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	5	-4	12.9	13.4	-0.49	15.9	19.9	-4.01
Eduardo Najera	46	43	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	1	4	12.7	13.3	-0.65	17.8	15.8	2.04
Yakhouba Diawara	12	13	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.10	7	-1	8	13.3	13.0	0.33	15.2	16.9	-1.68
J.R. Smith	18	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	8	-10	13.3	13.0	0.29	16.1	16.8	-0.75
Linas Kleiza	30	30	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	11	-16	14.2	12.5	1.72	18.3	15.9	2.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.24,0.17,0.23,0.16,0.27,0.29,0.43,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.61,0.76,0.64,0.78,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 84, TOR 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.31,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.85,0.73,1	91.1%
SAC 77, LAC 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.92,1	90.7%
UTA 86, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.59,1	90.6%