NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	77		Excitement	7.0 [374]		MVP	Rafer Alston (HOU): +13.6%
Houston Rockets	80		Comeback	1.7 [651]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -30.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	15	47%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	12	46%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Rasheed Wallace	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,-0.07	0.06	-0.10	0.03	17	54%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	-0.00	5	14%	-0.10	2	-0.11	4	0%	-0.14
Chauncey Billups	-0.30	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.3	-0.09	-0.20	0.02	17	38%	-0.23	2	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	8	62%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	25	53%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	0%	-0.11
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	9	22%	-0.17
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	21	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.4	31.5	18.6	25.2	3.6	40.1	148.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +73.3%

DET -13.9%

DET -6.5%

DET -1.0%

DET -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	HOU	NBA	DET	HOU	NBA
this game	16.3	17.2	15.4	89.5	93.0	105.7
season	16.8	16.2		108.8	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.8		100.3	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.4	17.4	15.0	14.5	16.3
HOU	15.9	16.9	20.0	16.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarvis Hayes	26	26	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.03	10	-13	23	13.3	17.6	-4.30	15.0	18.2	-3.13
Jason Maxiell	58	59	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.26	6	-9	15	15.8	17.1	-1.30	17.1	17.4	-0.33
Ronald Murray	21	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-2	1	16.2	16.3	-0.04	15.3	17.9	-2.68
Arron Afflalo	17	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.17	-1	-2	1	17.1	16.1	1.06	15.2	17.8	-2.60
Richard Hamilton	69	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-1	-1	16.1	17.1	-1.06	17.8	15.2	2.60
Chauncey Billups	65	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-1	-1	16.3	16.2	0.04	17.9	15.3	2.68
Rasheed Wallace	59	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-4	5	16.1	16.7	-0.64	17.3	16.9	0.43
Antonio McDyess	54	53	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	10	-23	17.2	14.6	2.62	17.2	17.3	-0.08
Tayshaun Prince	61	60	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.39	-13	10	-23	17.3	13.8	3.48	18.2	15.0	3.13

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	73	74	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.44	13	-10	23	17.6	15.3	2.25	16.4	15.6	0.80
Shane Battier	62	62	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.44	5	-2	7	18.2	14.7	3.49	16.5	15.5	1.01
Yao Ming	77	76	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.35	8	-5	13	17.5	15.1	2.36	16.8	12.1	4.72
Rafer Alston	62	62	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.51	2	1	1	18.2	14.7	3.49	16.1	16.7	-0.67
Tracy McGrady	73	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	-2	7	17.4	16.1	1.35	16.3	16.2	0.13
Luther Head	37	37	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	4	-5	15.2	18.8	-3.57	16.5	16.1	0.48
Bonzi Wells	24	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	5	-7	14.7	18.2	-3.49	15.5	16.5	-1.01
Luis Scola	22	22	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.03	-15	18	-33	15.2	17.9	-2.68	14.0	17.0	-3.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.76,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 91, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	91.9%
LAL 89, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.32,0.53,0.76,0.87,0.75,0.93,0.99,0.96,1	91.8%
VAN 81, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	91.5%