NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	92		Excitement	4.9 [831]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +12.4%
Chicago Bulls	81		Comeback	1.5 [886]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -14.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.07	0.02	-0.04	11	73%	0.15	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	8	58%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	13	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.03	16	57%	0.11	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Tony Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	8	42%	0.01	6	-0.15	8	100%	0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	11	62%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	19	46%	0.02	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	-0.04	-0.08	20	29%	-0.07	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.02	17	38%	-0.10	2	-0.05	5	60%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	28.2	15.4	25.3	1.8	32.2	129.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +72.8%

CHI -3.7%

BOS +0.9%

CHI -21.7%

BOS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHI	NBA	BOS	CHI	NBA
this game	16.3	16.3	15.4	104.5	91.0	105.7
season	15.6	15.0		108.0	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.9		105.4	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.1	14.5	17.1	17.4	16.3
CHI	15.2	17.5	17.1	15.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	77	77	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-5	21	16.3	16.3	-0.01	16.5	14.8	1.67
Ray Allen	81	81	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-5	21	16.0	18.9	-2.82	16.4	15.5	0.86
Kevin Garnett	69	68	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-2	15	16.0	17.3	-1.28	16.5	15.6	0.87
Paul Pierce	71	71	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	1	9	16.2	16.6	-0.41	16.2	16.5	-0.27
Glen Davis	47	49	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	-2	15	16.9	15.5	1.36	16.4	16.1	0.33
James Posey	38	39	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	10	-9	17.4	15.4	1.95	15.0	17.3	-2.23
Eddie House	22	24	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	13	-15	17.6	15.8	1.83	16.1	16.3	-0.21
Kendrick Perkins	22	22	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	16	-21	13.9	17.1	-3.20	17.5	15.9	1.68
Tony Allen	13	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	18	-25	15.8	16.3	-0.58	15.1	16.5	-1.35

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	24	24	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.12	6	-17	23	16.2	16.3	-0.16	17.5	15.8	1.70
Thabo Sefolosha	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	13.9	16.5	-2.66	17.4	16.1	1.32
Joakim Noah	21	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-12	13	15.5	16.5	-1.05	18.1	15.7	2.47
Joe Smith	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	-1	-9	17.7	15.1	2.64	14.7	17.6	-2.96
Kirk Hinrich	81	80	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-6	1	16.3	15.6	0.72	16.0	18.4	-2.32
Andres Nocioni	45	43	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-6	1	15.8	16.7	-0.93	16.8	15.8	1.04
Luol Deng	75	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	-4	-3	16.2	16.6	-0.34	16.5	15.1	1.39
Ben Wallace	76	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	1	-13	16.3	15.9	0.42	15.9	18.1	-2.13
Ben Gordon	73	72	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.07	-23	12	-35	16.2	16.4	-0.19	16.1	17.1	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.05,0,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 102, WAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
NOH 97, CLE 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
SEA 118, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%