NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	78		Excitement	3.4 [1110]		MVP	Hakim Warrick (MEM): +4.4%
Atlanta Hawks	86		Comeback	1.2 [934]		LVP	Mike Miller (MEM): -11.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakim Warrick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.03	7	70%	0.05	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	10	62%	0.03	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.07	0.00	0.07	9	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.03	12	52%	-0.00	2	-0.03	1	100%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	18	41%	-0.02	3	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Darko Milicic	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	5	30%	0.00	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.05	19	58%	0.06	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Acie Law	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	5	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	16	47%	0.02	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	4	62%	0.03	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	9	22%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	9	36%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	17	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	27.8	15.8	29.3	2.5	28.5	129.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +24.9%

ATL +2.9%

ATL +11.9%

ATL +7.1%

ATL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	ATL	NBA	MEM	ATL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	15.4	83.0	91.5	105.7
season	14.9	15.4		103.3	104.2
opponent	15.7	14.9		107.2	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.3	16.7	15.2	12.4	15.2
ATL	15.0	13.9	13.6	19.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakim Warrick	51	51	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.57	23	-31	54	14.7	15.7	-1.00	15.4	15.5	-0.10
Kyle Lowry	60	61	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.48	18	-26	44	14.8	15.9	-1.16	16.4	13.7	2.68
Casey Jacobsen	14	14	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.48	18	-26	44	13.4	15.5	-2.17	18.5	14.9	3.60
Tarence Kinsey	20	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-10	12	11.7	16.1	-4.45	17.3	14.9	2.40
Juan Carlos Navarro	22	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-8	8	16.3	14.9	1.40	14.2	15.8	-1.67
Darko Milicic	54	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	3	-14	14.4	16.3	-1.91	15.0	16.2	-1.18
Rudy Gay	86	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.04	-15	7	-22	15.5	12.4	3.09	15.4	15.5	-0.07
Pau Gasol	72	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.02	-18	10	-28	16.0	12.5	3.59	15.3	15.7	-0.39
Damon Stoudamire	34	33	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.21	-26	18	-44	15.9	14.8	1.16	13.7	16.4	-2.68
Mike Miller	57	55	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	0.27	-31	23	-54	16.2	13.7	2.52	15.1	15.9	-0.79

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Johnson	64	63	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.18	28	-20	48	14.0	18.5	-4.50	14.7	16.2	-1.53
Joe Johnson	73	75	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.05	19	-11	30	15.2	16.2	-0.97	16.1	11.8	4.28
Al Horford	63	62	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.05	21	-13	34	14.0	18.4	-4.45	16.2	13.3	2.91
Marvin Williams	83	84	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.00	19	-11	30	15.6	14.5	1.01	15.2	14.8	0.45
Josh Smith	79	79	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	2	4	15.6	14.4	1.23	14.8	17.5	-2.77
Lorenzen Wright	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	8	-8	0.0	15.4	-15.44	24.0	15.1	8.89
Solomon Jones	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	12	-16	14.7	15.5	-0.79	4.0	15.4	-11.45
Mario West	9	7	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.25	-9	17	-26	15.0	15.5	-0.48	8.9	15.7	-6.86
Shelden Williams	30	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.16	-7	15	-22	18.5	14.0	4.50	14.5	15.5	-1.02
Salim Stoudamire	36	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.25	-13	21	-34	15.4	15.5	-0.12	14.7	15.5	-0.73
Acie Law	30	31	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.44	-20	28	-48	18.5	14.0	4.50	16.2	14.7	1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 87, CHA 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
IND 87, PHX 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
SAC 99, GSW 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%