NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	93		Excitement	9.5 [79]		MVP	Ira Newble (CLE): +13.7%
Charlotte Bobcats	96		Comeback	2.2 [547]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -31.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ira Newble	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	9	70%	0.18	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	64%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Dwayne Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Drew Gooden	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gibson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	0.02	-0.09	-0.00	6	88%	0.29	6	-0.36	5	80%	-0.08
Devin Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	12	50%	0.01	4	-0.15	6	50%	-0.08
Larry Hughes	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15	-0.01	-0.15	-0.02	17	51%	0.01	4	-0.16	9	89%	0.06
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.32	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.32,-0.32	-0.06	-0.25	0.00	7	47%	-0.10	3	-0.21	3	67%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.01	10	75%	0.17	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.10	0.01	6	58%	0.21	4	-0.15	14	79%	0.12
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.19,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	13	47%	0.00	3	-0.07	14	50%	-0.20
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	36%	-0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.09	0.03	17	55%	0.10	6	-0.27	6	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.4	32.6	15.5	31.2	2.7	54.4	164.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +5.2%

CHA +13.3%

CLE -12.4%

CHA +47.3%

CLE -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	CHA	NBA	CLE	CHA	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.4	97.9	101.1	105.7
season	16.4	15.8		104.0	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.2		107.8	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.9	14.7	14.3	14.9	14.9
CHA	16.9	16.6	15.7	12.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Snow	21	21	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-5	7	16.2	14.6	1.67	16.4	15.1	1.35
Dwayne Jones	17	16	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-3	3	15.4	14.8	0.58	15.7	15.3	0.45
Sasha Pavlovic	34	35	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-4	5	15.9	14.4	1.56	15.4	15.3	0.08
Devin Brown	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.15	-6	3	-9	13.2	15.5	-2.28	18.9	14.3	4.53
Damon Jones	23	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	1	-5	12.7	15.7	-2.96	16.0	15.2	0.87
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	70	70	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.41	10	-13	23	14.1	17.4	-3.34	15.9	14.0	1.82
Drew Gooden	41	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	1	-5	16.4	13.9	2.51	15.7	15.1	0.62
Larry Hughes	53	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.29	-4	1	-5	14.4	15.6	-1.22	14.9	16.0	-1.07
Ira Newble	59	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	6	-15	15.4	14.1	1.33	15.5	15.2	0.24
Shannon Brown	69	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.56	2	-5	7	15.1	14.5	0.65	14.1	18.8	-4.77
Daniel Gibson	66	67	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.65	-3	0	-3	15.1	14.6	0.50	14.5	17.5	-3.01

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	73	71	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	-2	7	15.0	16.7	-1.70	15.5	13.3	2.20
Jason Richardson	79	80	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.46	3	0	3	14.9	17.5	-2.55	15.3	12.9	2.46
Gerald Wallace	77	77	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	0	3	15.3	15.9	-0.63	15.1	14.1	1.02
Matt Carroll	37	40	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-4	11	13.9	16.3	-2.39	14.2	15.4	-1.19
Emeka Okafor	77	76	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.39	-1	4	-5	14.6	18.8	-4.26	15.8	11.4	4.46
Ryan Hollins	17	17	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.08	4	-1	5	19.9	14.4	5.56	12.4	15.5	-3.15
Derek Anderson	21	19	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	1	1	17.2	14.9	2.39	15.3	14.9	0.41
Jeff McInnis	45	47	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	6	-9	15.7	15.1	0.67	13.4	16.4	-2.99
Primoz Brezec	31	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	8	-13	16.9	14.7	2.21	14.9	15.0	-0.10
Walter Herrmann	18	18	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	3	-3	15.9	15.3	0.63	14.1	15.1	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.64,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 97, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.58,1	91.3%
WAS 89, CLE 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.42,1	91.1%
CHA 96, MIA 100	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.27,0.36,0.22,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.58,1	90.7%