NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	6.2 [545]		MVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): +15.5%
Charlotte Bobcats	82		Comeback	7.3 [107]		LVP	Emeka Okafor (CHA): -15.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.08	0.03	17	64%	0.23	3	-0.08	13	77%	0.02
Andres Nocioni	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.00	12	58%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Duhon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.04	0.03	7	63%	0.09	3	-0.08	5	80%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.02	11	57%	0.11	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	9	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	15	58%	0.18	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.03
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	53%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.03	-0.04	16	53%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.06	0.03	14	44%	-0.06	2	-0.07	11	64%	-0.09
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	6	0%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.05	0.03	7	56%	-0.01	5	-0.14	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.5	28.2	15.6	24.6	2.4	38.9	136.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +35.5%

CHI +7.2%

CHI +22.1%

CHA -14.5%

CHA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CHA	NBA	CHI	CHA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.6	15.4	102.2	88.2	105.7
season	15.0	15.8		102.2	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.5		107.8	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.0	20.1	15.0	13.3	16.1
CHA	14.3	17.0	15.6	15.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	65	67	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.26	19	-10	29	15.9	16.5	-0.54	16.4	13.5	2.85
Andres Nocioni	50	56	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.25	17	-8	25	14.6	17.9	-3.30	16.3	14.5	1.88
Joakim Noah	43	47	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.24	16	-7	23	13.7	18.3	-4.58	16.7	14.5	2.25
Luol Deng	83	84	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.22	14	-5	19	15.6	22.7	-7.08	15.2	19.0	-3.77
Ben Gordon	68	71	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-4	17	14.9	20.0	-5.08	14.6	18.8	-4.23
Thabo Sefolosha	7	6	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	8	-7	19.3	15.8	3.49	20.2	15.3	4.89
Tyrus Thomas	10	10	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	10	-11	20.3	15.5	4.77	16.2	15.5	0.68
Joe Smith	48	51	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.00	-9	18	-27	18.4	13.3	5.05	14.9	16.4	-1.44
Ben Wallace	42	40	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	-0.00	-12	21	-33	18.0	14.3	3.66	14.9	16.1	-1.13
Kirk Hinrich	29	33	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.02	-13	22	-35	17.7	15.3	2.41	15.0	15.9	-0.96

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	42	41	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.13	7	-16	23	14.0	16.9	-2.95	15.9	16.2	-0.40
Derek Anderson	13	10	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-9	9	17.5	15.3	2.17	21.2	15.4	5.78
Primoz Brezec	20	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-4	-1	18.3	14.8	3.45	16.4	16.0	0.43
Jeff McInnis	28	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.11	-7	-2	-5	17.6	14.7	2.94	15.3	16.4	-1.10
Walter Herrmann	24	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-4	-1	16.7	15.2	1.51	16.1	16.0	0.09
Gerald Wallace	69	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-8	7	15.3	16.5	-1.17	16.3	15.4	0.86
Jason Richardson	77	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-5	1	15.3	16.9	-1.55	16.0	16.4	-0.43
Emeka Okafor	73	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.30	-4	-5	1	14.8	18.3	-3.45	16.0	16.4	-0.43
Raymond Felton	79	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.24	-8	-1	-7	15.3	17.0	-1.66	15.6	18.9	-3.29
Matt Carroll	40	37	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.15	-18	9	-27	16.1	15.2	0.89	16.1	16.0	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.87,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.34,0.22,0.11,0.01,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, DAL 78	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.76,0.68,0.53,0.29,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%
TOR 93, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.54,0.27,0.26,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.7%
MIL 110, TOR 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.63,0.47,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.16,0	92.6%