NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	81		Excitement	2.3 [1269]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +11.1%
Houston Rockets	109		Comeback	1.0 [1062]		LVP	Eduardo Najera (DEN): -6.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yakhouba Diawara	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	4	70%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Von Wafer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	10	54%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Bobby Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Allen Iverson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	18	43%	-0.03	3	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.15	0.00	-0.11	3	0%	-0.02	5	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	20	42%	-0.03	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	0.00	-0.06	8	12%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.18	0.00	0.07	23	64%	0.13	2	-0.02	9	89%	0.01
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	18	54%	0.05	3	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	62%	0.05	3	-0.04	3	0%	-0.03
Luther Head	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	12	33%	-0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.00	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.4	30.9	15.8	27.5	2.4	28.4	132.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +28.8%

HOU +5.7%

HOU +8.3%

HOU +4.9%

HOU +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	13.8	16.2	15.4	85.3	112.4	105.7
season	13.3	16.2		108.2	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.2		100.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	12.6	15.8	12.1	13.8
HOU	13.5	16.2	16.9	18.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Von Wafer	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-28	28	11.2	14.0	-2.80	18.2	16.0	2.27
Mike Wilks	19	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-26	24	11.6	14.4	-2.72	17.9	15.7	2.25
Bobby Jones	31	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.26	-14	-14	0	12.3	14.6	-2.30	16.9	15.8	1.13
J.R. Smith	53	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.25	-14	-14	0	12.6	15.3	-2.64	16.1	16.3	-0.20
Eduardo Najera	48	49	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.20	-14	-14	0	12.7	15.0	-2.31	16.7	15.6	1.03
Anthony Carter	50	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	-17	6	12.5	15.2	-2.72	16.2	16.1	0.15
Yakhouba Diawara	39	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-21	14	15.9	12.3	3.58	16.0	16.2	-0.20
Kenyon Martin	31	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.16	-15	-13	-2	14.8	13.3	1.43	15.1	16.7	-1.62
Carmelo Anthony	67	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.26	-21	-7	-14	14.4	12.3	2.16	15.8	17.0	-1.14
Marcus Camby	59	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	-11	-6	15.5	11.0	4.57	16.4	15.7	0.75
Allen Iverson	70	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.25	-25	-3	-22	14.3	12.4	1.86	15.4	18.3	-2.93

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	55	54	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.13	21	7	14	15.0	17.7	-2.65	14.6	12.8	1.73
Tracy McGrady	68	65	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.41	30	-2	32	15.6	17.6	-1.98	14.9	11.5	3.38
Shane Battier	70	70	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.28	23	5	18	16.2	16.1	0.07	14.3	12.6	1.70
Yao Ming	70	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.40	27	1	26	16.5	15.4	1.10	14.2	12.8	1.43
Rafer Alston	63	62	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.36	25	3	22	16.3	16.0	0.25	15.1	11.5	3.61
Luis Scola	36	35	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	22	-16	15.9	16.3	-0.39	12.3	14.7	-2.41
Steve Francis	43	43	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.20	11	17	-6	16.4	16.0	0.37	11.6	15.7	-4.11
Mike James	46	44	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.24	-4	32	-36	16.4	15.9	0.51	12.6	14.9	-2.27
Kirk Snyder	18	17	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.01	1	27	-26	17.8	15.8	1.98	13.8	13.8	-0.06
Luther Head	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	28	-28	18.2	16.0	2.27	11.2	14.0	-2.80
Carl Landry	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	28	-28	18.2	16.0	2.27	11.2	14.0	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 114, PHX 128	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.3%
IND 90, BOS 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%
CHI 91, CHA 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%