NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	91		Excitement	8.0 [232]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +38.0%
Detroit Pistons	92		Comeback	6.3 [351]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -22.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.26	0.09	0.16	-0.01	17	61%	0.28	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.07	0.03	12	73%	0.24	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.04
Josh Childress	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Acie Law	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	92%	0.12	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Josh Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.33,-0.35,-0.05	-0.17	0.13	0.01	17	33%	0.07	5	-0.12	5	100%	0.17
Tyronn Lue	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Al Horford	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.16	-0.06	-0.00	6	21%	-0.09	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.38	0.38	0.02	0.35	-0.01	17	55%	0.45	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.08
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	11	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.03	0.03	15	68%	0.15	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	7	57%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	12	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	37%	0.01	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	9	36%	-0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.6	29.5	17.0	25.2	2.4	39.4	140.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +12.3%

ATL -7.3%

DET +16.8%

DET +25.9%

DET +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	15.7	15.9	15.4	100.0	101.1	105.7
season	15.4	16.8		104.2	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.3	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.3	16.1	16.1	15.5	15.7
DET	14.1	16.6	19.1	14.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelden Williams	27	28	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.11	11	-12	23	13.6	16.7	-3.10	16.8	15.5	1.26
Acie Law	45	47	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.35	11	-12	23	13.5	18.0	-4.49	16.5	15.2	1.28
Josh Childress	47	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	1	-3	15.2	16.3	-1.17	15.9	15.9	-0.03
Marvin Williams	73	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.50	3	-4	7	15.8	15.3	0.50	16.2	14.7	1.48
Al Horford	70	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.17	-10	9	-19	16.4	13.5	2.94	15.4	17.5	-2.09
Josh Smith	72	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	5	-11	15.6	16.4	-0.80	16.2	14.9	1.22
Tyronn Lue	46	44	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	11	-23	18.0	13.5	4.49	15.2	16.5	-1.28
Joe Johnson	75	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.47	0	-1	1	16.3	13.1	3.24	15.5	17.6	-2.06

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	54	56	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.37	17	-16	33	14.8	17.6	-2.79	16.2	14.9	1.34
Chauncey Billups	65	67	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-7	15	15.8	16.2	-0.45	15.9	15.4	0.43
Jarvis Hayes	41	40	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.65	-4	5	-9	16.6	15.4	1.23	14.6	16.6	-2.03
Rasheed Wallace	70	70	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.40	3	-2	5	15.8	16.4	-0.67	15.7	16.0	-0.28
Richard Hamilton	65	65	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-12	25	14.6	19.2	-4.65	16.3	14.2	2.11
Tayshaun Prince	67	68	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.27	-5	6	-11	16.0	15.6	0.45	16.1	14.5	1.63
Ronald Murray	26	24	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	8	-15	16.2	15.8	0.45	15.4	15.9	-0.43
Arron Afflalo	9	9	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.04	-2	3	-5	21.6	15.3	6.26	13.3	16.0	-2.67
Jason Maxiell	50	48	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.10	-8	9	-17	16.4	15.3	1.08	15.2	16.4	-1.21
Nazr Mohammed	8	8	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.07	-10	11	-21	21.9	15.3	6.54	16.1	15.7	0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.23,0.34,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.45,0.67,0.62,0.84,0.97,0.93,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 97, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.6,0.75,0.71,0.83,0.91,1	93.0%
NJN 93, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.46,0.67,0.74,0.84,0.97,0.95,1	92.5%
TOR 96, PHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.59,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.53,0.53,0.84,0.91,0.91,1	92.3%