NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	7.1 [363]		MVP	Marcus Camby (DEN): +19.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Comeback	3.4 [662]		LVP	Antoine Walker (MIN): -11.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0.19	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.10	-0.01	10	67%	0.21	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.12	-0.02	22	65%	0.40	7	-0.22	7	71%	0.01
Bobby Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Allen Iverson	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	14	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	16	94%	0.06
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	3	43%	0.03	4	-0.11	8	50%	-0.06
Eduardo Najera	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	3	12%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	14	48%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	10	48%	0.04	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.05	-0.06	18	59%	0.20	5	-0.17	3	67%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	13	35%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	7	29%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	1.8	31.3	15.6	28.3	2.3	31.3	139.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +35.7%

DEN +9.2%

DEN +17.7%

MIN -12.9%

DEN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	13.6	15.7	15.4	101.0	91.9	105.7
season	13.3	15.9		108.2	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.2		109.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.3	12.1	12.0	17.2	13.6
MIN	14.3	17.2	15.7	15.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Wilks	61	63	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-2	12	13.8	13.2	0.54	15.8	15.4	0.41
Carmelo Anthony	91	90	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.23	12	-4	16	13.4	15.4	-2.02	15.7	15.6	0.13
Eduardo Najera	25	25	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.28	8	0	8	16.3	12.6	3.72	17.5	15.1	2.41
Marcus Camby	81	81	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.22	8	0	8	13.3	14.9	-1.61	15.6	16.1	-0.53
Nene	49	52	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	-5	18	12.9	14.2	-1.39	15.5	15.9	-0.41
Allen Iverson	80	81	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.18	5	3	2	13.1	15.5	-2.39	15.6	16.2	-0.67
Linas Kleiza	33	34	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	0	8	13.6	13.5	0.13	16.3	15.4	0.90
Bobby Jones	14	15	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	10	-12	13.4	13.6	-0.14	15.9	15.6	0.30
Yakhouba Diawara	16	15	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	17	-26	14.9	13.3	1.58	13.5	16.1	-2.60
Kenyon Martin	40	39	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.02	-13	21	-34	13.6	13.5	0.04	15.2	16.0	-0.78

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	63	61	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.17	7	-15	22	15.4	16.1	-0.64	13.1	14.3	-1.24
Greg Buckner	53	51	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.07	-3	-5	2	16.9	14.3	2.56	12.2	15.0	-2.87
Ryan Gomes	49	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.23	1	-9	10	15.0	16.3	-1.26	14.2	12.9	1.22
Antoine Walker	25	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	-2	-4	14.4	16.1	-1.76	14.7	13.1	1.54
Marko Jaric	26	26	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-1	-6	15.5	15.8	-0.29	14.6	13.2	1.45
Al Jefferson	79	77	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-6	4	16.0	14.4	1.60	13.2	14.8	-1.54
Sebastian Telfair	74	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-7	6	15.6	15.8	-0.16	13.0	15.2	-2.21
Corey Brewer	30	29	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-3	-2	15.4	15.8	-0.40	14.7	13.1	1.57
Rashad McCants	61	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	1	-10	15.3	16.3	-0.95	14.0	12.8	1.23
Craig Smith	35	36	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.09	-15	7	-22	16.5	15.2	1.30	14.0	13.3	0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.59,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.02,0.03,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 109, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.77,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.41,0.19,0.05,0.07,0.07,0,0.02,0	92.3%
DET 88, IND 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.09,0	91.9%
GSW 91, VAN 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.14,0.04,0.03,0,0	91.9%