NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	6.3 [589]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +25.2%
Indiana Pacers	79		Comeback	3.4 [195]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (IND): -25.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	16	68%	0.28	4	-0.14	9	89%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	8	61%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	15	62%	0.12	2	-0.09	7	100%	0.06
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	17	37%	-0.09	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.07	0.00	16	82%	0.30	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	7	86%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	4	40%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.06,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	22	48%	0.00	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.08
Dale Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	6	29%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	4	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.14	-0.11	-0.00	12	25%	-0.14	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	3.4	30.0	20.7	30.3	2.8	39.3	149.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +1.1%

DET +36.1%

DET +7.7%

DET +3.1%

DET +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	IND	NBA	DET	IND	NBA
this game	18.1	17.6	15.5	110.0	97.5	104.0
season	16.7	16.8		103.5	101.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		101.6	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.1	19.6	17.6	17.1	18.1
IND	14.0	16.4	22.4	18.9	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	72	73	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.29	13	-4	17	18.1	18.1	0.01	17.5	18.7	-1.23
Ben Wallace	68	67	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.37	8	1	7	18.2	17.8	0.36	18.2	15.1	3.11
Rasheed Wallace	67	70	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-5	19	18.3	17.5	0.81	18.1	14.5	3.69
Chauncey Billups	67	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-3	15	18.2	17.6	0.62	17.9	16.3	1.54
Richard Hamilton	75	77	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	4	1	18.3	15.0	3.35	17.8	15.2	2.52
Lindsey Hunter	13	12	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	9	-9	15.8	18.6	-2.83	17.2	17.7	-0.46
Carlos Arroyo	13	13	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	12	-15	18.8	18.0	0.75	15.4	18.1	-2.69
Antonio McDyess	25	24	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.07	-4	13	-17	17.6	18.4	-0.72	15.4	18.6	-3.16

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	12	11	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-13	17	14.5	18.2	-3.69	21.0	17.7	3.32
Dale Davis	40	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-8	7	16.4	18.9	-2.50	18.9	17.4	1.47
Reggie Miller	54	54	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-8	7	17.9	17.1	0.80	19.1	16.2	2.82
Anthony Johnson	39	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-5	1	16.2	19.0	-2.82	17.7	18.5	-0.76
Fred Jones	32	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-3	-3	17.0	18.0	-1.01	16.3	19.3	-2.96
Jamaal Tinsley	42	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	19.0	16.2	2.82	18.5	17.7	0.76
Jermaine O'Neal	75	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-4	-1	18.5	7.3	11.13	18.4	15.3	3.03
Jeff Foster	47	46	-0.59	0.10	-0.69	-0.24	-12	3	-15	17.4	18.0	-0.57	17.1	19.5	-2.37
Stephen Jackson	64	64	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.28	-15	6	-21	18.3	15.1	3.19	17.7	19.7	-1.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 88, LAC 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.0%
DET 87, BOS 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.08,0	91.9%
DEN 94, SEA 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.49,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	91.9%