NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	118		Excitement	6.5 [518]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (MEM): +29.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	133		Comeback	2.0 [338]		LVP	Steve Blake (DEN): -13.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.16	0.06	0.04	11	76%	0.18	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.01	19	58%	0.17	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.01
Nene	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	-0.00	0.05	12	81%	0.15	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Marcus Camby	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.01	0.03	12	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Evans	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	15	53%	0.08	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.01	-0.04	5	40%	-0.00	7	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.20	0.13	0.04	14	82%	0.38	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Tarence Kinsey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	18	61%	0.21	3	-0.10	10	80%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	11	58%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	12	62%	0.13	3	-0.06	8	50%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	90%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.03	13	52%	0.05	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.7	34.8	16.6	22.4	2.3	30.6	135.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +19.6%

MEM +13.6%

MEM +11.0%

MEM +4.9%

MEM +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	13.0	14.4	15.4	112.4	126.7	104.5
season	14.0	15.1		105.8	105.1
opponent	15.1	15.3		110.1	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.9	12.4	13.2	14.8	13.0
MEM	12.1	15.3	16.8	14.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	61	62	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.15	0	-15	15	13.0	12.9	0.10	15.9	12.4	3.46
Eduardo Najera	39	41	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.11	-1	-14	13	12.2	13.4	-1.21	14.4	14.5	-0.04
Yakhouba Diawara	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	9.5	13.1	-3.63	17.5	14.3	3.18
Reggie Evans	5	5	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.00	-1	-14	13	10.2	13.1	-2.93	9.8	14.7	-4.87
Steve Blake	73	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	-8	1	12.8	13.4	-0.55	15.3	12.5	2.89
J.R. Smith	44	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-4	-7	13.1	12.9	0.17	14.1	14.7	-0.53
Allen Iverson	88	88	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-5	-5	12.9	13.3	-0.36	14.1	16.3	-2.21
Carmelo Anthony	91	89	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	0	-15	13.3	11.1	2.21	14.6	13.3	1.33
Nene	72	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.05	-20	5	-25	13.2	12.6	0.52	13.7	16.1	-2.40
Linas Kleiza	48	48	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.32	-11	-4	-7	13.6	12.5	1.13	13.2	15.5	-2.27

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	74	75	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.02	18	-3	21	13.8	15.9	-2.12	13.3	12.2	1.11
Tarence Kinsey	105	105	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	0	15	14.4	0.0	14.44	13.0	0.0	12.99
Chucky Atkins	88	91	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.02	15	0	15	14.7	13.0	1.72	13.3	10.8	2.54
Hakim Warrick	65	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	5	5	14.7	13.9	0.79	13.6	11.9	1.68
Pau Gasol	59	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	6	3	14.6	14.3	0.32	13.7	11.9	1.80
Alexander Johnson	46	43	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.03	6	9	-3	14.3	14.6	-0.32	11.9	13.7	-1.80
Stromile Swift	43	40	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	10	-5	13.8	14.9	-1.02	11.8	13.7	-1.84
Junior Harrington	45	42	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	18	-21	15.1	14.0	1.10	11.8	13.8	-1.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.38,0.57,0.72,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, PHX 115	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1	94.3%
NYK 76, IND 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.95,1,1,1,1	94.1%
MIN 95, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.69,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,1	93.8%