NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	115		Excitement	5.9 [652]		MVP	Steve Blake (DEN): +20.2%
Utah Jazz	106		Comeback	1.5 [595]		LVP	Derek Fisher (UTA): -6.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Blake	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.15	0.05	0.00	8	89%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.04	-0.03	19	64%	0.30	5	-0.15	12	100%	0.06
Marcus Camby	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	8	76%	0.17	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Nene	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11	0.08	0.05	0.01	8	86%	0.22	5	-0.11	6	83%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.01	16	55%	0.13	3	-0.06	8	75%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.06	-0.03	14	67%	0.20	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	4	112%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.16	-0.06	0.03	19	70%	0.13	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	18	51%	0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	19	45%	-0.00	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	10	23%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	29.1	33.6	25.1	1.7	28.3	143.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +43.9%

DEN +19.8%

UTA -4.5%

UTA -10.4%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.5	15.6	15.4	121.1	110.4	104.5
season	14.0	15.9		105.8	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.3		104.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.8	12.7	15.9	17.0	14.5
UTA	16.7	15.5	16.1	14.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	76	76	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.16	12	-3	15	14.2	15.9	-1.74	15.8	14.9	0.94
Nene	72	74	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.15	12	-3	15	14.3	15.3	-1.00	15.8	15.2	0.54
Allen Iverson	89	89	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	2	5	14.6	12.5	2.14	15.6	16.4	-0.84
Steve Blake	70	71	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-1	11	14.3	15.1	-0.83	14.7	18.3	-3.56
Marcus Camby	77	78	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.20	2	7	-5	14.6	13.9	0.76	15.0	18.3	-3.24
Eduardo Najera	38	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	8	-7	15.0	14.2	0.82	16.2	15.3	0.84
Yakhouba Diawara	8	9	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	4	1	11.2	14.8	-3.55	18.0	15.4	2.60
Linas Kleiza	35	37	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.11	-1	10	-11	16.3	13.5	2.77	16.5	15.1	1.37
J.R. Smith	10	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	12	-15	12.7	14.7	-2.02	18.2	15.4	2.84

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarron Collins	31	33	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.28	13	-22	35	16.5	15.2	1.33	15.6	13.9	1.73
Dee Brown	33	33	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.21	9	-18	27	16.1	15.4	0.72	15.7	13.9	1.87
Paul Millsap	32	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-11	13	16.7	15.1	1.52	16.6	13.4	3.15
Ronnie Brewer	11	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.12	-10	1	-11	15.1	15.7	-0.63	13.2	14.7	-1.53
Matt Harpring	74	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-6	3	15.9	14.9	1.01	13.8	16.7	-2.83
Carlos Boozer	81	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-1	-7	15.0	18.9	-3.90	14.0	17.1	-3.08
Derek Fisher	61	60	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	8	-25	15.7	15.6	0.07	13.5	16.3	-2.82
Deron Williams	88	87	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	1	-11	15.4	18.2	-2.84	14.6	14.0	0.55
Mehmet Okur	69	67	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.03	-21	12	-33	15.4	16.3	-0.96	14.8	13.8	1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 117, BOS 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.2%
MEM 102, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.11,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0	93.9%
MIA 108, TOR 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0	93.9%